Evan Silva’s Matchups: Rams at 49ers

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Oct 18 2020 7 mins   18
Editor’s Note: We’re creating additional content, including live shows, on our YouTube channel. Make sure to subscribe to our channel today. Sunday Night Football LA Rams @ San Francisco Team Totals: Rams 27.25, 49ers 23.75 Jared Goff enters SNF with top-12 fantasy scores in three of his last four starts to face a 49ers defense still missing top CB Richard Sherman (Achilles’), slot CB K’Waun Williams (ACL sprain), DLs Nick Bosa (ACL), Dee Ford (knee, back), and Solomon Thomas (ACL), and lost MLB Kwon Alexander to a high ankle sprain in Week 5. An emerging pass funnel, DC Robert Saleh’s unit has held enemy backs to 104/315/2 (3.03 YPC) rushing but is painfully thin on pass-rush and coverage guys. Over his last four meetings with Saleh’s defense, Goff’s fantasy finishes are QB9, QB28, QB10, and QB17. With the 49ers at far less than 100%, I’d approach Goff as a solid-floor, decent-ceiling QB1 play here. … Due to San Francisco’s run-defense dominance, all three members of Los Angeles’ RBBC project as flex-play dart throws in both season-long leagues and one-game DFS tournaments. In Cam Akers’ (ribs) Week 5 return, he led the Rams in rushing (9/61/0) but played just 19% of L.A.’s offensive snaps and was not targeted on a single route run. Darrell Henderson led the backfield in snaps (43%) and touches (18) at Washington, while Malcolm Brown stayed confusingly involved with a position-high 16 routes run versus Henderson’s 12. Henderson is obviously the best straight-up play here but comes with zero guarantees in a bad matchup. Goff’s 2020 target distribution: Cooper Kupp 36; Robert Woods 31; Tyler Higbee 17; Josh Reynolds 16; Brown 14; Henderson 11; Van Jefferson 10; Gerald Everett 9; Akers 1. … On pace for 90 catches, 1,162 yards, and seven TDs, Kupp is a shoo-in WR2 with WR1 upside against a 49ers secondary missing top slot CB Williams. Only Tyler Boyd and CeeDee Lamb have more slot catches than Kupp this year. … With six-plus catches and/or a touchdown in 10 of his last 12 games, Woods remains a bankable every-week WR2 facing a 49ers backend that remains without top CB Sherman and yielded at- or above-expectation results to fellow perimeter WRs DeAndre Hopkins (14/151/0), Preston Williams (4/106/1), Chris Hogan (6/75/0), Travis Fulgham (2/57/1), and DeVante Parker (2/50/1) in Weeks 1-5. … Higbee and Everett have fallen back into a tight end timeshare; Higbee has drawn just one more target (8) than Everett (7) over the past three weeks, and Everett has out-gained Higbee during that span 134 to 72. They’re each one-game DFS-slate options only here. … Reynolds rounds out the Rams’ one-game DFS-slate options having lapped Jefferson for No. 3 wideout duties and commanded a vastly undersold 21.7% Air Yards share, second on the team behind Kupp (23.7%) and ahead of crossing-route specialist Woods (19.1%). Reynolds is the Rams’ only player popping in Josh Hermsmeyer’s Week 6 Air Yards Buy-Low Model. Clearly hobbled by his high ankle sprain in last week’s loss to Miami, Jimmy Garoppolo was removed at halftime in favor of C.J. Beathard and through three 2020 appearances is just 40-of-66 passing (60.6%) for 467 yards (7.1 YPA) with a 4:2 TD-to-INT ratio and career-worst 89.6 QB rating amid lingering health concerns. Against the Dolphins, Garoppolo couldn’t generate velocity or accuracy while continually throwing off his back foot. A healthier Jimmy G managed lowly 2019 fantasy finishes of QB19 and QB22 in last year’s Rams meetings, and this year’s L.A. defense has held 4-of-5 quarterbacks faced to fantasy outcomes of QB19 or worse. … Playing run-funnel defense under first-year DC Brandon Staley, the Rams have yielded a league-low 6.2 yards per pass attempt but the NFL’s ninth-most yards per carry (4.7). All told, enemy backs have tagged Staley’s unit for 140.6 total yards per game. Raheem Mostert warrants fringe RB1/2 treatment here after returning from his MCL injury to out-t [...]