Evan Silva’s Matchups: Chiefs at Bills


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Oct 12 2020 13 mins   11
Editor’s Note: Looking for DFS Optimizer Tips? Drew Dinkmeyer created a free video on our YouTube channel. Make sure to subscribe to our channel for more content like this. Kansas City @ Buffalo Team Totals: Chiefs 31, Bills 26.5 Patrick Mahomes visits Buffalo for an unexpected smash spot with Sean McDermott’s underachieving defense having conceded top-14 QB fantasy finishes in four straight games. All told, quarterbacks in Weeks 2-5 went 107-of-151 (71%) passing for 1,155 yards with a 9:1 TD-to-INT ratio and two additional rushing scores against the Bills. In the same timeframe, McDermott’s team coughed up 31.3 points per game. Especially as Buffalo’s offense has played at its peak – enhancing this game’s shootout potential – Mahomes’ ceiling is as lofty as ever here. … Averaging 18.3 touches and 6.3 targets over the last month, Clyde Edwards-Helaire draws potentially his last opportunity for a true eruption game following Kansas City’s signing of Le’Veon Bell. No Week 6 contest is totaled higher than Chiefs-Bills (57.5), while running backs facing Buffalo have averaged a rushing touchdown per game. Although Le’Veon could eventually downsize Edwards-Helaire into RB2 territory, the Chiefs’ first-round pick is an undeniable RB1 play here. Mahomes’ Weeks 1-5 target distribution: Travis Kelce 46; Tyreek Hill 35; Sammy Watkins 29; CEH 27; Mecole Hardman 17; Demarcus Robinson 15; Darrel Williams 11; Darwin Thompson 3; Byron Pringle 1. … Facing Buffalo with crucial pass-coverage LBs Tremaine Edmunds (shoulder) and Matt Milano (pec) expected to be available but at less than 100%, Kelce encounters a Monday night smash spot leading all tight ends in yards (405) and fantasy points. Kelce has drawn a league-high seven targets inside the 10-yard line, and only Aaron Jones has commanded more red-zone targets (9) than Kelce (8) regardless of position. … As Hill plays over half of his snaps in the slot (52%), it’s noteworthy that slot WRs Jamison Crowder (7/115/1), Cooper Kupp (9/107/1), Isaiah Ford (7/76/0), and Hunter Renfrow (5/57/0) have all met or beaten expectations against Buffalo’s secondary. Hill’s slot rate could climb in Watkins’ (hamstring) absence. … Hardman’s slot rate (58%) is even higher than Hill’s, however, and Hardman played a year-high 69% of Kansas City’s offensive snaps when Watkins left Week 5 early. An upside WR3 play in season-long leagues, Hardman also offers slate-breaking potential in one-game DFS tournaments in correlation with the Chiefs’ D/ST as Kansas City’s primary punt and kickoff returner. … Watkins’ likely multi-week injury opens up Robinson and to a lesser extent Pringle as one-game DFS-slate options. With John Brown (knee) returning for Week 6’s highest-totaled game, Josh Allen figures to stay hot after banking top-15 fantasy results in each of Buffalo’s initial five contests including top-six finishes in 4-of-5 weeks. Only the 49ers (221) have conceded more QB rushing yards than Kansas City (140), while 3-of-5 quarterbacks to face the Chiefs have logged top-12 outcomes. After Allen’s MVP tour took a step back in Week 5’s blowout loss to Tennessee, Week 6 offers JA17 a shot to reignite his candidacy should Allen outplay Mahomes on national TV. … Enemy backs bumrushed Chiefs DC Steve Spagnuolo’s unit for 129/632/3 (4.90 YPC) rushing and a whopping 182.6 total yards per game in Weeks 1-5, positioning Devin Singletary as a confident RB2 play with RB1 upside despite Zack Moss’ (toe) probable return. Moss enters Monday night’s game having been shelved for a full month, while Singletary looks game-script proof based on his more-proven pass-catching skills. Only five NFL defenses have allowed more receiving yards to running backs than Kansas City (281). Moss is playable only on one-game DFS slates. Allen’s Weeks 1-5 target distribution: Stefon Diggs 51; Cole Beasley 30; Brown 23; Singletary 22; Gabriel Davis 16; Dawson Knox 12; Isai [...]