Evan Silva’s Matchups: Bears at Rams

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Oct 19 2020 6 mins   16
Monday Night Football Chicago @ L.A. Rams Team Totals: Rams 25.5, Bears 19.5 Nick Foles enters Monday night with fantasy results of QB24, QB21, and QB16 in three starts to face a Rams defense that has held enemy signal callers to fantasy outcomes of QB19 or worse in 4-of-6 games. Rams DC Brandon Staley’s unit has permitted the NFL’s second-fewest yards per pass attempt (6.5) and tenth-fewest QB fantasy points per game. In a projected low-scoring affair, Foles is a low-end two-QB-league option. … Coming off season highs in carries (19), touches (23), and snaps (85%) versus the Panthers, David Montgomery encounters another plum draw against the run-funnel Rams, who enemy backs have tagged for 126/547/2 (4.34 YPC) rushing and 142.0 total yards per game. Montgomery’s lack of breakaway ability puts a cap on his ceiling, but usage continues to work in his RB2 favor. In three games since Tarik Cohen’s ACL tear, Montgomery is averaging 17.7 touches on an 84% playing-time clip. Foles’ 2020 target distribution: Allen Robinson 41; Jimmy Graham 25; Montgomery and Darnell Mooney 22; Anthony Miller 14; Demetrius Harris 7; Cordarrelle Patterson 6; Ted Ginn and Cole Kmet 3. … Only Calvin Ridley (837) and Adam Thielen (722) have drawn more air yards than Robinson (693) on the year, while A-Rob has dominated targets, receptions (26), yards (298), touchdowns (2), and first-down conversions (13) on passes from Foles. Even as an every-week WR1/2, Robinson’s risk is raised by Monday night’s likely shadow coverage from Jalen Ramsey. … Always a touchdown-dependent streamer nearing the end of his career, 34-year-old Graham has gone 15 straight games without topping 60 yards. … Popping as Week 7’s No. 6 buy-low player in Josh Hermsmeyer’s Air Yards Model, Mooney has drawn five-plus targets in four straight weeks. His floor isn’t high enough for season-long-league consideration, but Mooney offers slate-breaking upside in one-game DFS tournaments. … Slot man Miller has finished below 45 receiving yards in seven of his last eight games. He devolved into a one-game DFS option only. Jared Goff encounters a near-worst-case-scenario matchup against the Bears, who limited each of their initial six signal callers faced to fantasy finishes of QB20 or worse while permitting the NFL’s third-fewest yards per pass attempt (6.6) and an abysmal 4:5 TD-to-INT ratio. Managing games on a run-first team, Goff’s ceiling is always low, and his Week 7 floor is compromised by an imposing opponent. He’s just a two-quarterback-league play. … Darrell Henderson reasserted himself as the Rams’ lead back in Week 6’s loss to San Francisco, out-touching Malcolm Brown 14 to 5 and out-snapping him 53% to 45% while rookie Cam Akers played exactly one snap and didn’t touch the ball at all. Until proven otherwise, the Rams’ backfield is a two-man ordeal with Henderson in front, Brown close behind him, and Akers as a wait-and-hope stash. Monday night’s matchup is only above average, while the scoring projection on Bears-Rams is low. Nevertheless, Henderson is easily Los Angeles’ best fantasy running back bet with a team-high 14 or more touches in four of his last five games and four all-purpose TDs during that span. Goff’s 2020 target distribution: Cooper Kupp 45; Robert Woods 41; Josh Reynolds and Tyler Higbee 21; Brown 18; Gerald Everett 13; Henderson and Van Jefferson 11; Akers 1. … Leading the Rams in targets, catches (31), yards (374), and first downs gained (18) on throws from Goff, Kupp has earned every-week WR2 treatment. Kupp popped as Week 7’s No. 2 buy-low player in Josh Hermsmeyer’s Air Yards Model. … Nothing about Woods’ matchup stands out – the Bears are submitting the NFL’s third-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers – yet Woods’ WR2 bankability is difficult to ignore with 80-plus yards and/or a touchdown in 13 of his last 16 games (81.3%). … Reynolds remains solely in one-game DFS play [...]