Evan Silva’s Matchups: Seahawks at Cardinals

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Oct 19 2020 8 mins   9
Seattle @ Arizona Team Totals: Seahawks 30, Cardinals 26.5 The Seahawks return from their bye for Sunday’s massively-totaled trip to Arizona wherein the Cardinals face some letdown risk on a short week following last Monday night’s beatdown of Dallas. Not only is Russell Wilson 2020’s MVP frontrunner from a passing standpoint, he is on pace for 490 rushing yards – which would be Wilson’s highest total since 2017 – but hasn’t run for a touchdown yet, hinting at forthcoming positive regression. Having faced a Charmin-soft quarterback slate of Jimmy Garoppolo, Dwayne Haskins, Matthew Stafford, Teddy Bridgewater, Joe Flacco, and Andy Dalton, the Cardinals’ Chandler Jones-less (torn biceps) defense looks to be in for a rude awakening. … With fresh legs coming off Seattle’s open date, Chris Carson visits the desert on pace for career highs in targets (74), catches (68), total yards (1,373), and touchdowns (20) as a primary beneficiary of OC Brian Schottenheimer’s #LetRussCook movement. Arizona is surrendering 153.5 yards from scrimmage per game to enemy backfields, and only seven NFL defenses have allowed more receiving yards (294) to Carson’s position. Wilson’s 2020 target distribution: D.K. Metcalf 39; Tyler Lockett 38; Carson 23; Greg Olsen 19; David Moore 14; Will Dissly and Freddie Swain 8; Travis Homer 6; Carlos Hyde and Jacob Hollister 3; DeeJay Dallas 2. … Playoffs included, Metcalf enters Week 7 with 11 touchdowns over his last 16 games and 80-plus yards in seven of his last eight. Big box-score efforts by fellow No. 1 perimeter WRs Terry McLaurin (7/125/1), Robby Anderson (8/99/0), Amari Cooper (7/79/1) and Kenny Golladay (6/57/1) versus the Cardinals bode promisingly for Metcalf’s odds of staying scorching hot. … With his bye out of the way and back-to-back slow games before it, Lockett is a highly recommended buy-low target in season-long trades. Fellow enemy slot men Jamison Crowder (8/116/1) and CeeDee Lamb (7/64/0) each banked useful or better PPR production in each of Arizona’s last two games, while Lockett remains on pace for career highs in catches (96), yards (1,095), and touchdowns (13). … Olsen is a touchdown-reliant TE1 streamer option with one game above 35 yards on the year. No tight end has topped 53 yards against the Cardinals this season. … Yet to command more than four targets in an individual 2020 game, Moore is a low-floor WR4/flex play in Sunday’s projected high-scoring affair but should continue to be stashed in deeper-bench season-long leagues with WR2 upside should something happen to Metcalf or Lockett. Fantasy’s highest floor-ceiling combination quarterback to date, Kyler Murray catches Seattle with top-seven finishes in each of his initial six starts and top-five results in 4-of-6 largely on the back of leading all signal callers in carries (51), rushing yards (370), and rushing TDs (6). Murray dropped rushing lines of 4/27/1 and 6/40/0 in last year’s two meetings with Pete Carroll’s defense, while 2020’s Seahawks have yielded 24.2 QB rushing yards per game. As Murray is also likely to experience a clean pocket here – Seattle ranks 28th in Sack Rate (3.6%) and 18th in QB Hit Rate (14.5%) – Kyler has a chance to combine the best of both worlds in a run-pass explosion. Per Sports Info Solutions, only the Panthers are playing zone defense at a higher 2020 rate than the Seahawks (80%). In his career, Murray’s yards per pass attempt spike from 6.1 versus man coverage to 8.2 versus zone. … A pass-funnel defense, Seattle has held enemy backs to 101/378/3 (3.74 YPC) rushing while permitting the NFL’s sixth-most yards per pass attempt (7.9), gets back run-stuffing SS Jamal Adams (groin), and added 350-pound NT Damon Harrison to further solidify its interior girth. Yet Sunday’s shootout projection works in Kenyan Drake’s favor, and his productivity has improved lately with a 38/224/3 (5.89 YPC) rushing line over Arizona’s last two games. [...]