A Dual Approach to Forecasting Europe’s Future


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Feb 02 2018 35 mins   18

Forecasting global trends and developments can prove challenging even when you have the best information available. Stratfor leverages the study of applied geopolitics, tools of intelligence analysis and public report cards on our work to constantly improve our forecasting process. The team at Good Judgment Inc. seeks to directly quantify their forecasts with numerical probability assessments.


In this episode of the Stratfor Podcast, we’re joined by Good Judgment’s Philip Tetlock and Warren Hatch as well as Stratfor’s Rodger Baker and Mark Fleming-Williams to explore how qualitative insight and quantitative rigor can be applied in unison to improve forecasting of global developments. This is part of a larger collaboration between Stratfor and Good Judgment as we explore the future of European integration.


Read our latest analysis on this topic and more at Stratfor Worldview. If you’re not already a Worldview member, you can subscribe today at: https://worldview.stratfor.com/subscribe


Related Reading:
The Numeric Problem by Rodger Baker - https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/numeric-problem


The Numeric Solution by Dan Gardner - https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/numeric-solution


Stratfor Worldview’s 2018 Annual Forecast - https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/2018-annual-forecast


Stratfor Worldview’s Decade Forecast: 2015–2025 - https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/decade-forecast-2015-2025


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