War in Ukraine: What the Final Outcome May Look Like

Now that the spring thaw has begun in Ukraine, the year's most intense season of combat is about to start. How will this war end? It's almost anyone's guess.

But whatever the outcome, it will be shaped by the influence of the backstories which we've focused on in the last three podcasts. With this episode, we bring the series to a conclusion by examining the prospects for both Russia and Ukraine, however the war happens to conclude.

Putin believes that time is on his side, that he can persist in his efforts until he wears down Ukraine and exhausts the resolve of Ukraine's allies, so that he has the upper hand in dictating the terms which eventually bring the conflict to a close.

A host of practical questions will shape the contours of any final settlement. One of these is whether Ukraine, economically depleted and with a population millions smaller than when the war began, would have the manpower and wherewithal to defend its borders should they be restored to their prewar status.

And if Ukraine does not regain those border, the its future may well hinge on the answer to one question: how many of its ports can Ukraine reclaim through combat or peace negotiations.

With its economy centered on grain transport, and with only the port of Odessa still under its control, the resolution of this issue is pivotal to Ukraine's viability after the war. In this wrap-up episode, I explore a host of questions along this line.

A transcript of this episode is available at https://www.upsizeyourleadership.com/episodes.

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