The Jolly Contrarian Life

Serial murderers of any kind are vanishingly rare in Britain. Wikipedia lists fifty-five, since 1600. But so are miscarriages of justice. Wikipedia lists fifty-four, since 1255.

Both narratives are highly improbable. Of all the explanations we might offer for the unusual spike of incidents in 2015 and 2016, as a matter of “prior probabilities” they are the least plausible: all else being equal, it is highly unlikely there was a serial murderer at work in the Countess of Chester Hospital. But, one having been convicted, all else being equal it is highly unlikely her conviction was a miscarriage of justice. This is why tempers run high. Both positions seem untenable.

They leave untouched a wide range of more probable, but less satisfactory explanations. We like our narratives to explain the world to us. We do not find useful ones that say, “Well, we just don’t know”. We prefer conclusions, however unlikely they may be.

So our institutions persuade us to deprive Ms. Letby of that wide middle ground in which she was an ordinary person, with pluses, minuses, virtues and failings. Neither angel nor devil: she just had the misfortune to be involved, somehow — we know not how — in these tragic events.

On herd minds, groupthink and narrative bias

Herculio: ’Tis neither malice, spite, nor virtueWhose ledger swells, or plucks, the seedy fruits of progress —But mainly accident.Lest thee with surety know aught else —Withhold thy assignations.

Triago: Pish upon thee, Nuncle. Pish!Dost thou mean to sayThings peel this wayThrough doughty misadventure?

Herculio: Peradventure —

Triago: Pish abeam!Has thou no more to say than that?Wouldst thou on this shaky surmiseWithhold rebuke?

Herculio: Perchance, per case, mayhap dear Triago’Twas but a fluke?

Triago: O! This nuisant planet weighs upon my soul!

Herculio: If ’tis this and nought besideThat flies you to a vernal rageOur fickle globe in its manifold confound’ryLies prettily indeedFor thy alignment.

The full article on the JC is here.

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