Hopium Chronicles With Simon Rosenberg Podcast

Good morning all. Got a few things for you today:

Starting off with a dose of Hopium. Let’s welcome the new Senate Dem freshman class!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The Washington Post’s Heather Long just posted this on Twitter:

Our friend Ruben Gallego sat down with CBS for one of his first interviews since being declared the winner of his Senate race. Enjoy:

For those new here, the Hopium community raised $700,000 for this race, making us the largest bundler in the country for Senator-elect Gallego. Thank you all. This was an important win for us!

Meet Our Next Defense Secretary, Pete Hegseth, A Founding Member of the Trump Star Wars Bar of Allies (this is not a parody):

What Happened And What Comes Next - As I wrote Monday, the way I’m going to approach the vital discussion we need to have is by 1) posting short sketches and fragments here each day with a goal of a more comprehensive take in a few weeks 2) holding a robust video discussion series with folks in the game to get their thoughts and insights 3) keep asking a series of questions of them and others. I am not in a rush here, and nor should we be. What’s important is that we have a well-informed and respectful conversation, together, about what happened and what comes next over the next few months. We are far more likely to end up in a smart place if we take our time and not rush to judgment.

Today I release the first in these series of discussions, above. It is a conversation with legendary political strategist and technologist Joe Trippi about the power of networks, and our collective need to invest and build them, together. It is a fascinating conversation, and includes some of my reflections on why I decided to build this wonderful community, with all of you. Enjoy all.

The 2024 Election - Here the latest project of the national popular vote:

Here’s my latest take, updated daily:

2024 was a close election. Trump will win by approx. 1.5 pts, and 0.9 in WI, 1.4 in MI, 1.9 in PA and 2.2 in GA. A shift of 1.9 points in MI, PA, WI and Harris wins. 2024 was not a landslide, not a blowout. It was a close election. The Senate today is at 52-48 (PA is still counting) and the House will be decided by a few seats, either way. While we lost some House seats, we’ve also flipped a few, including 4 in New York State this cycle. While Harris lost in the 7 battleground states, we had important down ballot wins, including AZ, MI, NV, WI Senate and NC Gov. We had other important wins across the US and did win the blue dot again in Nebraska.

Despite him being a rapist, fraudster, traitor and 34 times felon there was a 5.8 point shift in the national popular vote towards Trump this cycle, and Trump is on track to be only the second Republican to win the national popular vote since 1988. While there were bright spots this year, this was a very bad election for our party, our freedoms, our democracy and our future and there is a lot of important work ahead of us.

Here is where our 15 endorsed candidates stand now:

* Flips (4) - Whitesides (CA-27), Gillen NY-4, Riley NY-19, Bynum OR-5

* Too Close To Call/Still Counting - (5) Engel AZ-6, Gray CA-13, Rollins CA-41, Tran CA-45, Bohannan IA-1

* Losses (6) - Shah AZ-01, Salas CA-22, Vargas NE-02, Jones NY-17, Altman NJ-07, Stelson PA-10

What happens in these races in the coming days - the place where we put out money and time - will determine control of the House. While today Rs are favored to keep the House, I remain very proud of the good we’ve done, together, this cycle. We made deeply strategic investments in AZ, NC, NE, WI and in critical House races across the country.

I also want to note the success we’ve had in New York this cycle. We’ve now flipped 4 NY House seats this year - NY-3, NY-4, NY-19 and NY-22. These wins have been another bright spot in a tough year.

Wondering whether our work matters? Look at the current margins in the key Senate races:

* AZ - 73,000 votes

* MI - 21,000 votes

* NV - 23,000 votes

* PA - 29,000 votes

* WI - 29,000 votes

Post-Election Pods, Posts and Videos - I got together with Tara McGowan and David Rothkopf last Thursday for one of our Deep State Radio discussions about US politics. This is the first of what will be many discussions I will be participating in about what happened and where we go from here.

A few more things to chew if you haven’t gotten to them yet:

* My big thank yous to members of the Hopium community who left it all out there on the playing field this cycle - Post | Video

* I’ve offered a series of post-election posts on the need for us to get louder (here, here, and here), something we discuss in my recent Closing Strong conversation with Dan Pfeiffer and Tara McGowan

Hopium “Thank You, Rest Up and Get Ready” Party in Los Angeles This Friday at 6pm - I am heading out to Los Angeles later this week to speak to a class at USC’s Annenberg School of Communications and Journalism. While there, and as a way to thank the many people who volunteered and donated this year, I’m teaming up with our friends at the Grassroots Democrats HQ to have a formal thank you party Friday at 6pm PT. It will take place at the GDHQ office, 1027 Westwood Boulevard in Los Angeles. All members of the Hopium community are invited so please RSVP today! I am really looking forward to seeing members of this community, and thanking all of you in person.

While we did not have the election we all wanted to have, grassroots Democrats have much to be proud of, and left it all out there on the playing field this year. It will be an honor to be able to thank folks in person for their extraordinary work this cycle (which in California continues this week!).

Tuesday, November 19th, 1pm ET - With Democrats, Things Get Better - Join me for the next live showing of my big picture presentation on American politics, With Democrats, Things Get Better. It is newly updated with each showing, so even if you caught it earlier this year there will be new data and fresh analysis. Please register here. The arguments in this presentation are foundational to our work here at Hopium, and will be helpful to those wrestling with where we go from here.

My favorite slide from With Dems:

Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you - Simon