Maccabee Nation Podcast

The Syrian civil war first broke out in 2011 and has since left hundreds of thousands dead and millions more displaced. You might not know much about it because there’s been no outcry against Assad’s brutality in the ivory towers of American universities because the blame can’t be squarely laid at the feet of the Jews. Israel has largely stayed out of the conflict besides providing significant amounts of humanitarian aid to those displaced and some targeted strikes against Iranian backed Hezbollah militants. That said, the implications of the recent successful offensive by various rebel groups in Syria begs the question if there’s an opportunity for Israel to use the chaos as leverage against adversaries or if they should stay out of the way instead.

First, it’s important we explain very briefly how we got here.

The Assad dynasty has been in power since 1971 and has accomplished very little beyond ensuring their own political survival. Most infamously, former President Obama claimed Assad’s potential use of chemical weapons would be a “red line” that would have “enormous consequences” and change the calculous on American military intervention in Syria’s civil war.

Assad would later cross that line by attacking a rebel-held suburb of Damascus with sarin gas, a nerve agent that causes lung muscle paralysis that results in death from suffocation. The attack killed over 1,400 men, women, and children.

Obama blinked and opted not to retaliate.

Extremist groups in Syria, including groups ideologically aligned with what we today consider ISIS, exploited America’s inaction to gain support from the local population. This helped strengthen the insurgency against Assad that’s persisted to this day.

Why is this back in the news?

The situation in Syria is highly complex and involves multiple actors with competing interests. A few days ago, following Israel’s negotiated ceasefire with Hezbollah, headlines about rebels making tremendous progress in Syria against Assad’s regime lit up the internet.

Assad has vowed that Syria will continue “to defend its stability and territorial integrity in the face of all terrorists and their supporters” and the defense ministry said it was preparing to launch a counteroffensive.

With rebels in control of Aleppo, including key military sites and the airport, any counterattack will be difficult for the Syrian army. The city held out for nearly two years under near continuous siege from government forces before being captured in 2016. Below is a map of who controls what today, although it can change hourly.

So who are all the main players in this conflict?

Bashar al-Assad's Regime and his allies:

🔫Assad, backed by Russia and Iran, has been fighting to retain control of Syria. His regime has been responsible for much of the violence and destruction during the civil war, including the use of chemical weapons against civilians we discussed earlier.

🔫Foreign Involvement: Russia and Iran support Assad, though often with conflicting goals and both have been distracted by conflicts that are more strategically important to them. Notably, Russia has ramped up airstrikes against opposition forces recently, but they’ve been distracted by the war in Ukraine. Hezbollah was also heavily involved in propping up Assad’s regime although recently they have been retreating back into Lebanon in favor of focusing more on the war with Israel.

Opposition Groups (not all allied together):

🔫ISIS and Other Extremists: Groups ranging from moderate rebels to extremist factions like ISIS and al-Qaeda affiliates (sometimes referred to as HTS), are fighting against Assad. Different countries, most notably Turkey, have supported these groups, but they are fragmented and at odds with each other as well.

While ISIS has lost much of its territory, it still operates in pockets of Syria, complicating the situation further. Other extremist groups, often funded or supported by various foreign interests, continue to wreak havoc.

🔫Kurdish Forces: The Kurdish forces, particularly the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), have been key players in the fight against ISIS. They control significant parts of northeastern Syria and have received support from the U.S. but have been opposed by Turkey due to their ties to the PKK (Kurdistan Workers' Party).

🔫Israel has been concerned about Iran's growing influence in Syria and has carried out airstrikes targeting Iranian positions (and their proxies) near its border.

Who does Israel want to win?

Probably no one, but let’s briefly take a look at each.

🔫The Assad regime has been historically opposed to Israel, maintaining a state of conflict since the 1967 war. However, under certain circumstances, Israel has had a pragmatic coexistence with Assad, preferring a known adversary. Recently, there's been a nuanced approach where Israel has targeted Iranian and Hezbollah positions in Syria to limit Iran's military presence, which indirectly benefits Assad.

🔫Free Syrian Army (FSA) and Moderate/Extremist Rebels: Some elements are more moderate than others, but these are largely Islamist groups (like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, formerly al-Nusra Front, and other Jihadists). Basically ISIS. They are ideologically opposed to Israel, seeing it in the context of global jihad. This would be another Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthi equivalent, just in Syria. Not good for Israel.

🔫Kurdish Forces - Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF): The SDF, primarily Kurdish with some Arab, Syriac-Assyrian, and Turkmen elements, has been focused on autonomy rather than direct hostility towards Israel. However, their relationship with Israel is complex due to Israel's strategic interests rather than supporting Kurdish autonomy. They used to not like that Israel had strong diplomatic relations with Turkey, who is fighting them, but now that Turkey is also basically at war with Israel and supporting and harboring Hamas terrorists, there’s some potential for deeper collaboration.

🔫Turkey-Backed Groups (Syrian National Army - SNA): These groups, supported by Turkey, aim to establish a Sunni-dominated governance in northern Syria. Their focus has been more on fighting Kurdish forces, but they generally align with broader Sunni anti-Israel sentiments.

From Israel's perspective, maintaining stability, countering Iranian expansion, and avoiding the rise of extremist groups will likely remain the focus. No side is outright "good" for Israel, the current dynamics mean that a weakened, but stable Assad regime is the least bad option for Israeli security interests. In the Middle East, it rarely benefits to take the mystery box.

If you read all that and you’re pondering why the heck Turkey is still part of NATO, you’re not alone. Let’s address that in a future post.

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Sources

The illusion of Assad’s grip on Syria shatters

https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/30/middleeast/analysis-syria-assad-rebels-intl-latam/index.html

Obama blinks on Syrian Redline https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/the-president-blinked-why-obama-changed-course-on-the-red-line-in-syria/

https://www.newsweek.com/reassessing-obamas-syria-red-line-ten-years-later-opinion-1822332

Who are the players in Syria’s civil war?

https://apnews.com/article/syria-hts-assad-aleppo-fighting-2be43ee530b7932b123a0f26b158ac22

Israel provides humanitarian aid to Syrians

https://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-sends-aid-to-syrians-fleeing-daraa-in-overnight-good-neighbor-operation/

Look even the NY times acknowledged the humanitarian aid from Israel in 2017

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/20/world/middleeast/israel-syria-humanitarian-aid.html

US Pullout from Afghanistan unmitigated disaster

https://thediplomat.com/2024/09/the-us-withdrawal-from-afghanistan-willful-blindness-or-a-face-saving-act/

Russia striking rebel positions https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-02/syria-war-conflict-heats-up-with-russia-and-iran-on-backfoot?embedded-checkout=true

Map of recent offensive

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/12/1/who-controls-what-in-syria-in-maps

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/national-international/what-to-know-rebel-gains-syria/6029097/

https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/30/middleeast/syrian-civil-war-reignited-explainer-intl/index.html