Kontrarian Korner

Wilson from HFI Research joined me yesterday for part 2 of my series on oil, and we had a great conversation on a variety of topics. We talked about his outlook for oil and gas in 2025, what he sees for US production and OPEC spare capacity in 2025, and some of the equities that he finds attractive today. You can also find him on Twitter where he posts some of his work on oil and gas.

Podcast Summary

* His general outlook for oil and natural gas in 2025.

* OPEC spare capacity in 2025.

* Why LNG is the main demand driver long term for increased natural gas demand, and why projections for power burn demand might be off.

* His issues with EIA numbers, and how they adjust numbers to try to get an accurate read on US oil production.

* Their projections for US production in 2025, and the gap between their numbers and consensus.

* How the Permian Basin is in the process of peaking, and why he thinks there will be a structural supply deficit for oil by the end of the decade.

* His thoughts on Trump as a wild card, but why his second term will look different for energy than his first term.

* Why a SPR refill could be a big tailwind IF it happens.

* His view on sanctions or tariffs having an impact on oil markets.

* His thoughts on some specific Canadian equities, some of the Permian producers, as well as a special situation they’re watching.

* What he looks for in companies when it comes to buybacks and capital returns.

* Book Recommendations: The Courage To Be Disliked by Ichiro Kishimi and Fumitake Koga & More Money Than God by Sebastian Mallaby.

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