MCMP – Epistemology

Scott Page (Michigan) gives a talk at the Conference on Agent-Based Modeling in Philosophy (11-13 December, 2014) titled "Collective Accuracy: Agent Based & Emergent vs Statistical and Assumed". Abstract: In this talk, I describe two broad classes of models that can explain collective accuracy, what is more commonly referred to as the wisdom of crowds. The first model is based on statistical/law of large numbers logic. Accuracy emerges from the cancellation of random errors. The second model has roots in computer science and psychology. It assumes that predictions come from models. Different predictions arise because of different model. I then describe how in agent based models the amount model diversity, and therefore the accuracy of the collective emerges. It is possible to write difference equations that explain average diversity levels. The talk will summarize papers written with Lu Hong, Maria Riolo, PJ Lamberson, and Evan Economo.