Nov 26 2024 9 mins 1
Contrary to some misconceptions, most voters seem to understand that housing is good.
The claim comes again and again like clockwork: That allowing homes to exist can be hazardous to a politician's career.
Even at the annual picnic of her own neighborhood association, surrounded by pasta salad and barbeque, Jessica Bateman couldn't escape the threat.
It was summer 2019. In her first term as a city councilor in Olympia, Washington, Bateman had led a charge to legalize duplexes, fourplexes, and other small apartment buildings in much more of the city. A man who lived down the street from her confronted her about it at the picnic.
"I said, 'I think people are gonna like it,'"
Bateman recalled.
"And he said, 'Or we're just gonna vote you out of office!'"
Bateman did indeed draw a challenger for her council seat, who made the seemingly controversial new zoning code her central issue. But then Bateman defeated her by 33 points, carrying every precinct in the city.
It'd be hard to call Bateman's election victory a fluke - or Bateman's subsequent election to the state House of Representatives and then the state Senate, where she was immediately selected to chair the housing committee. Last week's results offer the latest evidence that in election after election politicians who support housing options like duplexes, townhomes, and apartments overwhelmingly tend to win their races.
In Washington, universal re-election for pro-housing legislators
Let's start with Washington, where Bateman quickly established herself as one of the state's leading housing advocates after her constituents sent her to the state Capitol. In 2023, she carried a law through the legislature that re-legalized so-called "missing middle" housing, like triplexes and townhomes, in cities across the state.
In a 2022 news report, the state's largest public radio station had called an earlier version of the concept "potentially career-ending." Now, 19 months after the contested but successful legislative votes over Bateman's House Bill 1110, we can test that notion:
Every single Washington legislator of either party who voted for Bateman's zoning bill and ran for re-election in 2024 ended up winning both their August primary and November general elections. Six other legislators, including Bateman, ran for new offices and won.
Meanwhile, only three legislators who had supported House Bill 1110 lost, all three after deciding to enter already-crowded races for higher office: Republican Jacquelin Maycumber, who ran for Congress and lost to Spokane County Treasurer Michael Baumgartner; Democrat Kevin Van De Wege, who ran for public lands commissioner and lost to King County Council member Dave Upthegrove; and Democrat Mark Mullet, who ran for governor and lost to Attorney General Bob Ferguson.
In Oregon, zoning reformers in both parties have been defeated only by other zoning reformers
Because Washington's bill was only passed last year, 18 of its supporters in the state senate haven't come up for reelection yet. So for a look at the longer-term political implications of a housing bill, let's check in on Oregon's very similar fourplex legalization from 2019. Every legislator who voted for that bill, House Bill 2001, has now been up for re-election at least once; House members have been up twice.
Five years later, fourplex supporters in Oregon continue to have a flawless electoral performance:
Out of 48 Oregon legislators who supported HB 2001 and subsequently ran again, only three have lost:
Republican Sen. Denyc Boles, who'd been appointed to fill a Democratic-leaning seat in Salem and lost to Congregational minister Deb Patterson, a Democrat who went on to co-sponsor a follow-up to the fourplex bill.
Republican Rep. Cheri Helt, who had won a Democratic-leaning seat in Bend after her opponent faced a sexual abuse scandal. Helt was then ousted after one term in favor of Jason Kropf, a Democrat who also went on to co-sponsor the follow-up fourplex bill.
Democratic Sen. Bet...
The claim comes again and again like clockwork: That allowing homes to exist can be hazardous to a politician's career.
Even at the annual picnic of her own neighborhood association, surrounded by pasta salad and barbeque, Jessica Bateman couldn't escape the threat.
It was summer 2019. In her first term as a city councilor in Olympia, Washington, Bateman had led a charge to legalize duplexes, fourplexes, and other small apartment buildings in much more of the city. A man who lived down the street from her confronted her about it at the picnic.
"I said, 'I think people are gonna like it,'"
Bateman recalled.
"And he said, 'Or we're just gonna vote you out of office!'"
Bateman did indeed draw a challenger for her council seat, who made the seemingly controversial new zoning code her central issue. But then Bateman defeated her by 33 points, carrying every precinct in the city.
It'd be hard to call Bateman's election victory a fluke - or Bateman's subsequent election to the state House of Representatives and then the state Senate, where she was immediately selected to chair the housing committee. Last week's results offer the latest evidence that in election after election politicians who support housing options like duplexes, townhomes, and apartments overwhelmingly tend to win their races.
In Washington, universal re-election for pro-housing legislators
Let's start with Washington, where Bateman quickly established herself as one of the state's leading housing advocates after her constituents sent her to the state Capitol. In 2023, she carried a law through the legislature that re-legalized so-called "missing middle" housing, like triplexes and townhomes, in cities across the state.
In a 2022 news report, the state's largest public radio station had called an earlier version of the concept "potentially career-ending." Now, 19 months after the contested but successful legislative votes over Bateman's House Bill 1110, we can test that notion:
Every single Washington legislator of either party who voted for Bateman's zoning bill and ran for re-election in 2024 ended up winning both their August primary and November general elections. Six other legislators, including Bateman, ran for new offices and won.
Meanwhile, only three legislators who had supported House Bill 1110 lost, all three after deciding to enter already-crowded races for higher office: Republican Jacquelin Maycumber, who ran for Congress and lost to Spokane County Treasurer Michael Baumgartner; Democrat Kevin Van De Wege, who ran for public lands commissioner and lost to King County Council member Dave Upthegrove; and Democrat Mark Mullet, who ran for governor and lost to Attorney General Bob Ferguson.
In Oregon, zoning reformers in both parties have been defeated only by other zoning reformers
Because Washington's bill was only passed last year, 18 of its supporters in the state senate haven't come up for reelection yet. So for a look at the longer-term political implications of a housing bill, let's check in on Oregon's very similar fourplex legalization from 2019. Every legislator who voted for that bill, House Bill 2001, has now been up for re-election at least once; House members have been up twice.
Five years later, fourplex supporters in Oregon continue to have a flawless electoral performance:
Out of 48 Oregon legislators who supported HB 2001 and subsequently ran again, only three have lost:
Republican Sen. Denyc Boles, who'd been appointed to fill a Democratic-leaning seat in Salem and lost to Congregational minister Deb Patterson, a Democrat who went on to co-sponsor a follow-up to the fourplex bill.
Republican Rep. Cheri Helt, who had won a Democratic-leaning seat in Bend after her opponent faced a sexual abuse scandal. Helt was then ousted after one term in favor of Jason Kropf, a Democrat who also went on to co-sponsor the follow-up fourplex bill.
Democratic Sen. Bet...
