Feb 04 2025 13 mins
This week Will and Ben discuss how the newly active tariffs will impact agriculture markets.
Market recap (changes on week as of Sunday's close):
» March 2025 corn down $.04 at $4.82
» December 2025 corn down $.01 at $4.60
» March 2025 soybeans down $.13 at $10.42
» November 2025 soybeans up $.03 at $10.51
» March soybean oil about up .89 cents at 46.11 cents/lb
» March soybean meal down $4.80 at $301.10/short ton
» March wheat up $.15 at $5.59
» July 2025 wheat up $.14 at $5.84
» March 2025 cotton down 1.73 cents at 65.88 cents/lb
» December 2025 cotton down 0.79 cents at 68.71 cents/lb
» October WTI Crude Oil down $2.13 at $72.53/barrel
Weekly highlights:
The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee maintained the federal funds rate at a range of 4.25-4.50%. In the official policy statement released- words around inflation moving in the correct direction were removed.
In the fourth quarter of 2024, the US economy grew at an annual rate of 2.3%, driven by consumer and government spendings, despite downturns in investment and exports. This compares to expectations of 2.5% growth and the 3.3% experienced in Q4 of 2023.
US crude oil stocks increased 145.5 million gallons on the week- the first increase in 2.5 months. Gasoline stocks were up 124 million gallons week over week while distillate fuel stocks were down 210 million gallons. Implied gasoline demand was 3% on the week.
US ethanol production pulled back to 298 million gallons as the cold snap across the Midwest limited production. The volume compares to 323 the week prior and 291 the same week last year. This was the first time production fell below 300 million gallons since September.
The December Cotton Systems report indicated that cotton consumption was 77% lower than December 2023 with cotton stocks down 50% year over year. Manmade fiber was down 26% from November 2024 and 4% from December 2023.
It was a mixed week for export sales of US grains and oilseeds. Corn sales of 53.5 million bushels were down from the week prior. Soybean sales of 16.1 were bearish coming in below all expectations while wheat sales of 16.8 million bushels were near the top end of expectations. There were again- no new sorghum export sales.
The USDA January 2025 cattle inventory report revealed the total US cattle inventory decreased by 1% from the previous year, totaling 86.7 million head as of January 1, 2025. This marks the lowest level of beef cattle in 64 years.
Grain export inspections from the US last week came in within expectations. Corn, soybeans, and sorghum weekly shipments were all higher than the week prior, but lower week over week for combined US wheats.
Topics:
» Cotton market in peril
» Trade tariffs with Canada and China
» Avoiding tariffs with Mexico
» Fed holds interest rates steady
» Reports to watch
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