Dec 10 2024 14 mins
This week Will and Ben look at a global shift in cotton supply and demand along with potential trade friction with Canada.
Market recap (changes on week as of Monday's close):
» March 2025 corn up $.09 at $4.41
» December 2025 corn up $.07 at $4.39
» January 2025 soybeans up $.05 at $9.90
» November 2025 soybeans down $.01 at $10.04
» March soybean oil up 1.62 cents at 41.42 cents/lb
» March soybean meal up $7.80 at $295.70/short ton
» March wheat up $.11 at $5.58
» July 2025 wheat up $.11 at $5.73
» March cotton down 1.54 cents at 69.95 cents/lb
» December 2025 cotton down 1.13 at 71.14 cents/lb
» October WTI Crude Oil mostly flat at $68.13/barrel
Weekly highlights:
The US Economy created 227,000 jobs in the month of November, up from the disappointing 36,000 in October. The Unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2%. Year over year hourly wage inflation was also steady at 4.0%.
US crude oil stocks were down 213 million gallons while gasoline, distillates, and ethanol stocks were higher by 99, 142, and 6 million gallons, respectively. Implied US gasoline demand was 3% higher week over week.
US ethanol production pulled back from its record production the week prior to 315 million gallons produced- roughly the same as the same week in 2022 and 2023.
Open interest in grains and oilseed futures and options was up 1.1%. Across commodities it was up for wheats (+3.5%), soybeans (+0.9%), soybean oil (+3.0%), soybean meal (+1.9%), and cotton (+0.2%). Open interest was down for rough rice (-2.0%) and corn (-0.4%).
Money managers were net sellers of the grains and oilseed complex again this week. Traders sold off net futures and options positions of wheat (-18,037), corn (-9,222), and soybean oil (-13,766), while being net buyers of soybeans (+9,255), soybean meal (+2,117), cotton (+3,618) and rough rice (+753).
US grains and oilseed export sales were bullish again this week. Corn sales of 68.2 million bushels were above all pre-report expectations. Soybean sales of 85.0 million bushels were at the top end of expectations and SRW at 3.5 million bushels was the largest volume in 2 months.
Weekly export inspections were up for corn at 41.3 million bushels but down for soybeans (59.6), grain sorghum (2.9) and wheats (8.3). Wheat shipments were bearish, below all pre-report expectations.
Topics:
» Global cotton supply and demand
» Trade tension with Canada building
» USDA supply and demand numbers out
» Federal Reserve to meet on interest rates
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