Aug 08 2023 58 mins
Brett (@deepvaluebettor), Judah (@throwthedamball), and guest Ben Brown from PFF (@pff_benbrown) slice and dice the Bears, Packers, Vikings, and Lions betting prospects in 2023 from a markets and analytics perspective, and offer their favorite high-octane "alpha bets" for the division.
The Chicago Bears right tail outcomes look fat and if it all comes together (asking a lot) this team could be the Lions of 2022 (but so much relies on Justin Fields development as a passer, and the arrival of DJ Moore helps...but isn't going to unilaterally elevate Fields).
The Green Bay Packers have been a bottom 5 offensive pace team with Aaron Rodgers - now with an inexperienced QB, inexperienced WRs, and a rookie TE, least scored points +1100 looks attractive.
The Minnesota Vikings and Kirk Cousins are models of consistency, and in a division ripe with uncertainty + the addition of Brian Flores to improave a dreadful defense, +300 division winners is juicy.
Goff had a ceiling year in 2022, and expecting that performance again is a vulnerability (unless Ben Johnson truly is the next offensive genius). But the Lions won't be sneaking up on anyone this year and expectations are sky high. This makes the Lions fragile and under 9.5 wins +100 is Brett's division alpha bet.
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