Oct 02 2024 10 mins
by Doug Livermore the Director of Engagements for the Irregular Warfare Initiative.
This essay analyzes Israel's recent strikes against Iran's proxy forces, including Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. It examines the strategic implications of these operations, which have significantly degraded Tehran's regional influence network. The author explores Iran's limited response options, constrained by the loss of key proxy capabilities, internal instability, and the threat of overwhelming Israeli and Western retaliation. The piece considers the credibility dilemma Iran now faces and speculates on potential moves by remaining proxies like Iraqi militias. Ultimately, the essay argues that while Israel's actions may weaken Iran's regional power in the short term, the long-term effects will depend on Tehran's ability to adapt and potentially rebuild its proxy network.
The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not reflect the official position of the Irregular Warfare Initiative, Princeton University’s Empirical Studies of Conflict Project, the Modern War Institute at West Point, or the United States Government.
The essay can be found on the Irregular Warfare Initiative's website.
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