Jan 13 2025 38 mins
Interview with
Tim Moody, President & CEO of Pan Global Resources Inc.
Andy Home, Senior Metals Correspondent, Reuters
Recording date: 8th January 2025
The tin market is experiencing significant transformation as the metal's role in the global energy transition becomes increasingly critical. As a crucial component in electronics soldering and solar panel coatings, tin demand is expected to grow with the expansion of electrification and renewable energy infrastructure.
Industry experts project a potential supply deficit of 13,000 tons by 2030 without new mining investments, driven by anticipated demand growth of 2-3% annually. This shortfall is complicated by mounting supply risks from key producing regions.
Indonesia, a top refined tin producer, is pursuing policies to restrict raw material exports and develop domestic downstream processing capabilities. According to Reuters senior metals columnist Andy Home, while Indonesia's ambitions mirror its successful nickel export ban, the country faces unique challenges in developing downstream tin industries due to tin's specialized electronics applications.
Meanwhile, Myanmar, another top tin producer, continues to impact market dynamics. An ongoing ban on new mining at one of the world's largest tin deposits has affected supply, particularly to China. This has led to declining inventory levels on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, which dropped from over 20,000 tons in early 2024 to approximately 6,000-7,000 tons, prompting China to become a net importer of refined tin.
Europe is responding to these supply chain vulnerabilities by considering adding tin to its critical minerals list. Tim Moody, CEO of PanGlobal Resources, notes the strategic advantage of developing tin projects in Europe, where almost all tin is currently imported except for recycled material.
While substitution risks exist, particularly in traditional applications like canning, the electronics industry's trend toward miniaturization is making tin increasingly indispensable in soldering applications. Advanced electronics require high-tin content solders with ultra-fine pitches, making alternatives less viable.
Looking ahead to 2025, the tin market faces potential volatility. While demand concerns persist due to China's slow economic recovery and recession risks in developed markets, supply-side factors are expected to dominate price movements. The market will be particularly sensitive to China's inventory levels and import patterns as it adapts to constrained supply from Myanmar and potential disruptions from Indonesia.
The combination of growing demand from the energy transition sector, limited new mining projects, and supply chain risks presents both challenges and opportunities in the tin market, particularly for projects in stable jurisdictions that can help diversify global supply.
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