In the Company of Mavericks

Have you ever wondered what investing in Emerging Markets is all about? It’s complicated, right? And having witnessed a decade or more of US dollar dominance and outperforming developed markets, particularly US markets, why bother looking at the rest of the world? After all, isn’t that where all the bad stuff happens, like currency crises and debt defaults?

Recently, there have been signs that Emerging Markets might be re-emerging. This year, there have been signs that the dollar’s dominance may not be so dominant. Following the Fed’s decision to cut rates by 50 basis points, China announced an intention to add significant heft to its policy of loosening monetary and fiscal conditions in the world’s second-largest economy.

Following an extended period of being considered uninvestable, Chinese equities had a near 30% bounce in a couple of weeks. Was this just some hasty short closing or a re-awakening of the biggest emerging markets? This is currently one of the fiercest debates among global investors.

I wanted to get the perspective of an emerging markets expert, so I was delighted to have the chance to speak with Leila Kardouche of Variis Partners. Leila is a veteran of the space, and she and her small team recently launched a new London-based emerging markets partnership. This partnership fills a space left by several high-profile investors who have recently left this area due to its long period of disappointing returns.

In this episode, we learn about the structure of Emerging Markets and how benchmark indices such as the MSCI are not very helpful in uncovering the full potential of the growth opportunities often obscured within these markets. Among other things, Leila discusses how to evaluate political risk in this widely diverse range of markets as we tour what’s hot and what’s not in an investment universe covering 85% of the world’s population.

Critically, Leila and the Variis team focus on stock selection. Leila discusses how the challenges of growing businesses in emerging markets have produced some very successful compounding growth opportunities. Yes, these companies have outperformed strongly even within markets like China, which has been disappointing overall.

For my recent Substack covering emerging markets, please see, Are Emerging Markets Re-emerging?

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