Luminous English

When a man named Stephen Greenspan found himself in that situation, he decided to weigh his skeptical friend’s warning against

the data available. His sister had been investing in the fund for several years, and she was pleased with the results. A number of her friends had been, too; although the returns weren’t extraordinary,

they were consistently in the double digits. The financial adviser was enough of a believer that he had invested his own money in the fund.

Armed with that information, Greenspan decided to go forward. He made a bold move, investing nearly a third of his retirement savings in the fund. Before long, he learned that his portfolio had grown by

25 percent.

Then he lost it all overnight when the fund collapsed. It was the

Ponzi scheme managed by Bernie Madoff.

Two decades ago my colleague Phil Tetlock discovered

something peculiar. As we think and talk, we often slip into the

mindsets of three different professions: preachers, prosecutors, and

politicians. In each of these modes, we take on a particular identity

and use a distinct set of tools. We go into preacher mode when our

sacred beliefs are in jeopardy: we deliver sermons to protect and

promote our ideals. We enter prosecutor mode when we recognize

flaws in other people’s reasoning: we marshal arguments to prove

them wrong and win our case. We shift into politician mode when

we’re seeking to win over an audience: we campaign and lobby for

the approval of our constituents. The risk is that we become so

wrapped up in preaching that we’re right, prosecuting others who are

wrong, and politicking for support that we don’t bother to rethink

our own views.

When Stephen Greenspan and his sister made the choice to

invest with Bernie Madoff, it wasn’t because they relied on just one of

those mental tools. All three modes together contributed to their illfated decision. When his sister told him about the money she and her

friends had made, she was preaching about the merits of the fund.

Her confidence led Greenspan to prosecute the friend who warned

him against investing, deeming the friend guilty of “knee-jerk

cynicism.” Greenspan was in politician mode when he let his desire

for approval sway him toward a yes—the financial adviser was a

family friend whom he liked and wanted to please.

Any of us could have fallen into those traps. Greenspan says that

he should’ve known better, though, because he happens to be an

expert on gullibility. When he decided to go ahead with the

investment, he had almost finished writing a book on why we get

duped. Looking back, he wishes he had approached the decision with

a different set of tools. He might have analyzed the fund’s strategy

more systematically instead of simply trusting in the results. He

could have sought out more perspectives from credible sources. He

would have experimented with investing smaller amounts over a

longer period of time before gambling so much of his life’s savings.

That would have put him in the mode of a scientist.

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📚هایلایت قسمت 11 کتاب Think Again

✅ weigh: وزن کردن، سنجیدن

✅ skeptical : شکاک

✅ available : دردسترس

✅ pleased with : راضی از

✅ extraordinary : خارق العاده

✅ consistently : همیشه

✅ financial adviser : مشاور مالی

✅ believer : معتقد

✅ armed with : مسلح به، با عنایت به

✅ to go forward : جلو رفتن

✅ bold move : حرکت جسورانه

✅ retirement : بازنشستگی

✅ portfolio : کیف پول

✅ overnight : یک شبه

✅ collapse : متلاشی شدن

✅ two decades ago : بیست سال پیش

✅ peculiar : خاص و عجیب

✅ slip into : سر خوردن به

✅ preacher : واعظ

✅ prosecutor : دادستان

✅ politician: سیاستمدار

✅ particular : خاص

✅ distinct : مجزا

✅ sacred : مقدس

✅ in jeopardy : در خطر

✅ sermon : پند

✅ reasoning : استدلال

✅ marshal arguments: ردیف کردن استدلال ها

✅ audience : مخاطب

✅ approval : تایید

✅ constituent: جز، رای دهنده

✅ prosecuting : محاکمه کردن

✅ politicking : سیاست به خرج دادن

✅ ill-fated : شوم

✅ merit: مزیت

✅ confidence : اعتماد

✅ prosecute: محکوم کردن

✅ deeming : فرض کردن

✅ knee-jerk cynicism : بدبینی ناخودآگاه

✅ sway: متمایل شدن

✅ trap: تله

✅ gullibility : ساده لوحی

✅ investment : سرمایه گذاری

✅ get duped: گول خوردن

✅ gambling : قمار کردن

✅ scientist : دانشمند

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