Jan 26 2024 11 mins 7
3:00 PM ET Game
Kansas City @ Baltimore
Team Totals: Ravens 24.5, Chiefs 20.5
Patrick Mahomes’ AFCCG outlook is uninspiring from a matchup standpoint on the road against a Ravens defense that allowed 2023’s fewest points per game (16.5) while leading the league in takeaways (31) and sacks (60). Chiefs OTs Donovan Smith and Jawaan Taylor struggle badly in pass protection, while LG Joe Thuney (pec) is unlikely to play. Thuney’s loss is especially concerning versus white-hot Ravens DT Justin Madubuike, who rung up 13 regular-season sacks and was all but unblockable in Baltimore’s Divisional Round win over Houston. I did bet the over on Mahomes’ rushing prop (26.5 yards) in this one; being hurried could lead to more off-script scrambles, while Mahomes has cleared 27 rushing yards in eight of his last 14 playoff games. … Thuney’s absence plus Isiah Pacheco’s ankle and toe injuries are cause for some Week 21 pause as it pertains to Pacheco’s postseason-DFS playability, although signs point toward Pacheco facing Baltimore. Over his last nine games, Pacheco has turned 134 carries into 702 yards (5.2 YPC) and six touchdowns and caught 25 of 28 targets. In Jerick McKinnon’s (core muscle surgery, I.R.) absence, Pacheco has arguably emerged as Kansas City’s most consistent skill-position player. Pacheco should flirt with 20 touches if the Chiefs keep this game close. … Clyde Edwards-Helaire is worth keeping in mind on the off chance Pacheco sits or pre-game reports suggest he’ll be limited. Playing 28% of Kansas City’s postseason offensive snaps, CEH has parlayed 11 touches into 56 yards.
I took the under on Rashee Rice’s 59.5 receiving-yards prop on the basis that I don’t believe Mahomes will hit his peak passing yardage at Baltimore, and Rice’s primary matchup is daunting versus plus-sized Ravens CB Kyle Hamilton. Arguably the best slot cornerback in the league, Hamilton yielded a minuscule 54% completion rate and 38.4 passer rating when targeted this season. … I did go over on Justin Watson’s 14.5 receiving-yards prop. I think mistake-machine Mecole Hardman could be phased out here, while Skyy Moore (knee) isn’t going to play. Kadarius Toney (hip) is an ongoing enigma. Watson should see a bunch of playing time at Baltimore. … Especially with Ravens top CB Marlon Humphrey (calf) due back, I don’t trust Marquez Valdes-Scantling to repeat his two big Divisional Round catches. … Albeit while often covered by Bills third-string LB A.J. Klein, Travis Kelce delivered one of his season-best games in Week 20’s win over Buffalo. Nothing stands out positively about Kelce’s AFCCG matchup aside from his in-place rapport with Mahomes. Last week, Kelce and Mahomes connected for their 16th career postseason touchdown, breaking Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski’s previously-held playoff record.
I took the under on Lamar Jackson’s Week 21 rushing-yards prop (65.5) due to Kansas City’s history of focusing on containing dual-threat quarterbacks in the pocket and attempting to force them to move east-west rather than north-south. Additionally, Baltimore’s enviable offensive line health foreshadows Jackson experiencing a clean pocket; not a single Ravens O-Lineman appears on this week’s injury report. Especially with Mark Andrews (ankle) on his way back, I like Jackson’s chances of shining in the passing game here. … I took the over on Justice Hill’s receiving-yards prop (12.5) after Hill netted yardage totals of 11, 26, 64, and 31 in his last four games. Adding post-Keaton Mitchell juice to Baltimore’s backfield, I think Hill has played the best football of his career over the last month. … Gus Edwards is perpetually a TD-or-bust DFS tournament proposition. K.C. yielded the NFL’s fourth-fewest rushing touchdowns to running backs this regular season (6) and allowed zero RB rushing scores in last week’s win over Buffalo.
If Andrews is active, I don’t envision Isaiah Likely being DFS playable against the Chiefs, who held tight ends to the league’s sixth-fewest regular-season fantasy points. I did go over on Andrews’ 35.5 receiving-yards prop; he cleared that mark in eight of 10 games in 2023. Andrews has been a full practice participant since last week. … Zay Flowers is a wild card with Andrews returning and top Chiefs CB L’Jarius Sneed’s potential shadow coverage looming. I’m indifferent on Flowers’ box-score outlook here. It’s obviously discouraging that Flowers hasn’t drawn a single end-zone target with Andrews on the field all year. … I bet Rashod Bateman’s receiving-yards under (22.5). No Ravens wideout runs more perimeter routes, while Kansas City’s main defensive strength is perimeter pass coverage. I also think Odell Beckham will play more than he did last week, probably at Bateman’s expense. Only the Jets surrendered fewer fantasy WR points than the Chiefs this regular season. … In the Divisional Round, slot man Khalil Shakir led Bills wideouts in receiving with 44 yards. Accordingly, Nelson Agholor is the Ravens’ main slot option.
Score Prediction: Ravens 23, Chiefs 17
6:30 PM ET Game
Detroit @ San Francisco
Team Totals: 49ers 29.5, Lions 22
Jared Goff encounters major NFCCG red flags on the road facing a 49ers defense that tends to shut down passing offenses in the middle of the field with Lions LG Jonah Jackson (knee) unlikely to play and elite C Frank Ragnow (ankle/toe/knee/back) exceedingly hurt. Goff’s 2023 yards-per-pass-attempt average dips from 8.1 at home to 7.1 on the road, while San Francisco’s interior front is loaded with Arik Armstead, Javon Hargrave, and Javon Kinlaw inside. Via slot man Amon-Ra St. Brown and All-Pro rookie TE Sam LaPorta, Detroit’s passing attack is built on middle-of-field throws. … I went over on Jahmyr Gibbs’ 22.5 receiving-yards prop because I think the Lions will play this game from behind, and Gibbs can take over as Detroit’s main RB in comeback mode. San Francisco coughed up the NFL’s fifth-most running back receptions (90) this regular season, then six more to Bucs RBs last week. Gibbs’ receiving-yardage totals in the Lions’ first two playoff games were 43 and 40. I expect to see less of David Montgomery here.
I took LaPorta’s under at 48.5 receiving yards after he failed to clear that mark in seven of his last 11 appearances. Only five NFL defenses gave up fewer 2023 fantasy tight end points than the 49ers, while Packers TEs Luke Musgrave (3/14/0) and Tucker Kraft (3/9/1) were quiet against San Francisco last week. I also worry that Lions blocking TE Brock Wright’s (forearm, I.R.) loss could translate to more blocking snaps for LaPorta. … St. Brown’s target ceiling is sky high in a game environment I expect to result in a lofty pass-attempts total for Goff with Detroit rallying back. ARSB has cleared 95 yards and/or scored a touchdown in 17 of 18 games this season. … Jameson Williams’ target counts over his last three appearances are 4, 2, and 3 compared to Josh Reynolds’ 3, 7, and 2 excluding Week 18, which Williams missed. They’re both high-volatility DFS darts at this point with Kalif Raymond (knee) still on the shelf.
I dropped an anvil on San Francisco to cover -6.5 when this game’s spread opened Monday, believing the Niners could blow the Lions out. I also bet the over on the 49ers’ team total at 29.5 points. Even after last week’s rough outing versus Green Bay, Brock Purdy is set up for success against a Detroit defense that yielded the NFL’s second-most yards per pass attempt (7.8) this regular season, then got clocked for yards/TD/INT results of 367/2/0 (Matthew Stafford) and 349/3/2 (Baker Mayfield) this postseason. I love the idea of buying low on Purdy in playoff DFS. … The Lions have played elite run defense all season but did yield 128 yards and a TD on 19 touches to Bucs running backs last week. As no alternative 49ers back touched the football in San Francisco’s Divisional Round win over Green Bay, Christian McCaffrey remains the league’s most matchup-proof box-score producer. CMC has earned lineup-staple status.
Especially with Deebo Samuel (shoulder) banged up, George Kittle offers NFCCG eruption potential against a Lions defense that coughed up the league’s fifth-most regular-season fantasy TE points, then 5/65/1 receiving to Cade Otton last week. … I do believe Samuel will gut it out against Detroit based on his high pain-tolerance history. If Deebo does play, Jauan Jennings and Chris Conley would resume bit roles. Jennings appears to be Samuel’s direct backup. … Brandon Aiyuk’s ceiling is massive against the backend-deficient Lions, who hemorrhaged the league’s third-most fantasy WR points this regular season, then stat lines of 9/181/1 (Puka Nacua) and 8/147/1 (Mike Evans) over the past two weeks.
Score Prediction: 49ers 34, Lions 20
