Feb 06 2024 9 mins 11
Chiefs vs. 49ers
Team Totals: 49ers 24.5, Chiefs 22.5
Arguably an overrated unit with pass-rush inconsistencies, the 49ers played run-funnel defense in their initial two playoff games, holding previously-hot Jordan Love and Jared Goff to 46-of-75 (61%) combined passing for 467 yards (6.2 YPA) and a 3:2 TD-to-INT ratio. Love ran for three yards against the Niners; Goff ran for none. Patrick Mahomes is a different animal — he’s been the best player in football for the past six years — but this matchup is imposing, especially considering Mahomes’ subpar supporting cast. I’m fading Mahomes’ passing props but bet him to run for over 26.5 yards at -110 odds. The Niners allowed the NFL’s 11th-most regular-season QB rushing yards (332). Mahomes is averaging exactly 26.5 rushing yards over his last 15 playoff contests but is easy to envision forcing more onto his own plate with limited help in what projects as a tight-score game. I also took K.C. to top 103.5 rushing yards as a team (+100).
The 49ers’ defensive front was physically manhandled in each of its first two playoff games, conceding a combined 49/262/2 (5.3 YPC) rushing line to Packers and Lions running backs. Although Isiah Pacheco is nursing toe and ankle injuries coming off an inefficient performance at Baltimore, Pacheco has rested in four of the past nine weeks and is averaging 23.5 touches for 111.5 yards and a touchdown over his last four appearances. I’m not sweating the potential return of Jerick McKinnon (groin, I.R.), who hasn’t been seen since Dec. 17 and was averaging 3.9 touches before going down. I assume McKinnon will simply replace Clyde Edwards-Helaire if he plays. Heavy set and shaky in pass protection, the Chiefs’ front five is built to play power football, an offensive approach with which San Francisco’s defense struggled in January. I took Pacheco to rush for over 16.5 yards in Sunday’s first quarter at -110 odds. Promisingly, the Chiefs got standout play during AFC Championship week from LG Nick Allegretti, who was filling in for stalwart LG Joe Thuney. Thuney’s pec injury appears likely to keep him out again here.
The Niners held Lions and Packers tight ends to a combined 17/132/1 (7.8 YPR) stat line on 25 targets (5.3 YPT) in their first two playoff weeks after restricting enemy TEs to the league’s sixth-fewest fantasy points this regular season. 49ers ILBs Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw form arguably pro football’s most athletic off-ball linebacker tandem. I’m still passing on Travis Kelce prop bets due to his oft- indefensible on-field chemistry with Mahomes. … The Chiefs attacked Baltimore with two-receiver sets in AFC title week featuring Rashee Rice (89% snaps) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (83%). After San Francisco gave opposing slot WRs Amon-Ra St. Brown (7/87/0) and Jayden Reed (4/35/0) fits in January, I hesitate to be overly bullish on Chiefs big-slot rookie Rice. … Especially with 49ers top CB Charvarius Ward likely attached to him on the perimeter, MVS looks like a bad Super Bowl box-score bet. Valdes-Scantling made three big catches over Kansas City’s last two affairs but hasn’t exceeded five targets in a game all season. He’s appeared in 19 contests. I bet MVS’ alternate receiving yards under of 15.5 at +130 and MVS to catch fewer than 1.5 passes at -110. … Noah Gray, Justin Watson, Richie James, Blake Bell, Kadarius Toney, Skyy Moore, and Mecole Hardman round out the Chiefs’ subpackage pass-catching options. My favorite bet of the group continues to be Watson, who hit his receiving yards over in the AFC Championship and has solidified a near-50% playing-time role via his blocking and reliability. Gray plays a lot of snaps but — including playoffs — has gone 30 straight games without reaching 40 yards. It’s almost impossible to imagine the Chiefs devoting critical touches to error-machine Toney in the Super Bowl. Moore (knee, I.R.) hasn’t caught a pass since Dec. 3. Hardman has been outright benched for ineffectiveness.
Brock Purdy haters threaten to be out in full Sunday force as 2022’s Mr. Irrelevant faces a Chiefs defense that stymied Tua Tagovailoa, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson for a combined 66-of-115 passing (57%), 657 yards (5.7 YPA), and a 3:2 TD-to-INT ratio across Kansas City’s first three postseason games. Only three defenses yielded fewer regular-season fantasy quarterback points than the Chiefs. Too often a boom-bust passer, Purdy is the biggest wild card performer entering Super Bowl LVIII. I’m betting Purdy under 126.5 first-half passing yards (-125), under 246.5 passing yards (-115) for the game, and under 1.5 TD passes (-105). Only two NFL teams yielded fewer yards per pass attempt than the Chiefs (6.0) in 2023.
At +475, Christian McCaffrey is my favorite odds-based Super Bowl MVP pick after he led the NFL in rushing yards post-contact (949) now facing a Chiefs defense that surrendered the league’s third-most yards after contact per carry (3.4, Next Gen Stats). George Kittle has missed a ton of practice time with a toe injury. Brandon Aiyuk is going to run most of his routes at relentless Chiefs shadow corner L’Jarius Sneed. In five career playoff games with San Francisco, CMC is averaging 20.0 touches for 111.8 yards and 1.4 TDs. I think McCaffrey is likelier to garner MVP clicks from voters than Purdy if the 49ers win.
My favorite Super Bowl prop bet remains Deebo Samuel over 58.5 receiving yards (-115), especially with Kittle nicked up and Aiyuk’s matchup unideal. Over the last eight games in which Deebo logged at least a 40% playing-time clip, he reached 59 receiving yards five times and was consistently a huge part of HC Kyle Shanahan’s game plan, averaging 90.6 total yards from scrimmage. I did throw a longshot bet at Deebo to win Super Bowl MVP at 20 to 1. Samuel to clear 125 combined rushing and receiving yards at +500 odds is also appealing. … Aiyuk is an incredible player in a trying matchup. This regular season, only the Jets allowed fewer fantasy WR points than the Chiefs. I went under Aiyuk’s 62.5-yard receiving prop (-115). … I’d be more willing to bet on Kittle if I felt more confident about his health. The Chiefs are also loaded with athleticism in the middle of the field, especially with ILB Willie Gay (neck) on his way back. … FB Kyle Juszczyk delivered clutch catches of 23 and 10 yards in the NFC Championship game but is rarely utilized on offense with CMC, Samuel, Aiyuk, and Kittle healthy. They’re all going to play Sunday.
Score Prediction: 49ers 21, Chiefs 20
