Statistically Speaking

Transcript

MILES FLETCHER

Hello and welcome again to ‘Statistically Speaking’, the Office for National Statistics’ Podcast. I'm Miles Fletcher, and in this episode we're going international.

Now it hardly needs saying that global issues, climate change, population growth, inflation, to name a few are best understood and addressed with the benefit of good global statistics. So, to that end, the ONS works in partnership with a number of countries worldwide with the ultimate aim of raising the world's statistical capabilities. At the one end of Africa, for example, a continent where it’s deeply involved, that includes embedding state of the art inflation indices and other economic data in Ghana. On the other side of the continent, it's meant using AI and machine learning to track the movement of displaced populations in Somalia. How do you run a census in places where nobody has a permanent address?

It's all fascinating work and here to tell us about it, Emily Poskett, Head of International Development at the ONS; Tim Harris of the ONS Data Science Campus’s international development team; and joining us from Accra, our special guest, Government Statistician of the Republic of Ghana and head of the Ghanaian Statistical Service Professor Samuel Annim.

Emily then, to start give us the big overview if you would, set out for us the scale and the purpose of this international development work that the ONS is doing.

EMILY POSKETT

We work with countries around the developing world to support strong modern statistical systems wherever we see a suitable opportunity to do so.

MF

What form does that work take? Does it mean statisticians going out to these countries?

EP

Yes, it does, when that's the right way to go about things. So our work is usually through the form of medium-term partnerships with a small group of national statistical offices, or NSOs, from the developing world, and those partnerships are medium term over a number of years in order to build up a real understanding of the context in that country, that national statistical office’s vision for modernization and how the ONS can be of most help to achieve their own goals under their own strategy.

That relationship will normally be led by a particular individual who spends time getting to know the context and getting to know the people, getting to know what ONS can do to help. A partnership might cover a range of topic areas from census to data science to leadership training to economic statistics, and the lead point of contact, the strategic advisor in many cases, will bring in the relevant experts from across ONS, and they'll work through virtual collaboration but also through on-site visits, and they will work out the best timing for those and the best delivery modality in order to ensure that the gains are sustained. Our primary focus really is to make sure that changes that we support in the partner organisation are sustainable, and the work that ONS does using the UK’s aid budget is really impactful and leads to long term change.

We don't always work through direct partnerships, for example where we see opportunities to work alongside other organisations, so international institutions like the World Bank or other national statistics offices like Statistics Canada or Statistics Sweden, they might choose to bring us in to deliver small pieces of focussed technical assistance alongside their own programmes. One of our medium-term partnerships is with the United Nations Economic Commission For Africa (UNECA), and they work with all 54 countries of Africa, and they can choose to bring in our expertise alongside their own to target particular needs in particular countries. But I would say that 70% of our effort is through these medium-term partnerships.

MF

So the ONS is providing one part of a large patchwork of work, going on right across the developing world, but what is the ultimate purpose of that? What are all these countries trying to achieve together?

EP

Well, strong statistical systems are essential in all countries to aid effective planning and informed decision making. And this is even more important in developing countries where resources are often scarce and you're trying to use scarce resources to target a wide range of needs across the population. And that resource might include UK aid for example, and aid from other countries. The UK has been statistical capacity building for many, many years through different modalities, working with partners, and the ONS is just one implementing partner who can be called upon to provide that technical expertise. We're really proud to be a partner of choice for a number of developing countries and the ONS is seen worldwide as being a leader. We're really proud that countries like Ghana would choose to work with us, and that we want to do our bit to help them to achieve their own strategy and their own goals.

MF

Well, this seems like an excellent moment to bring in Professor Samuel Annim. Our great pleasure, great honour, to have you with us professor. From your perspective, and what you're looking to achieve in the Ghana Statistical Service, how important how useful is the work with ONS been for you?

PROFESSOR SAMUEL ANNIM

From the perspective of how it has been important for us, I mean, I look at it from several aspects. I got into office in 2019, a year after the ONS and GSS collaboration had been established. And when I joined obviously, I had a sense of what I wanted to contribute to the office. Partnership that we've seen between National Statistical Offices over the years have always taken the dimension of statistical production partnerships, and what I simply mean by that is that they’re going in to help the service deliver on its core mandate. So for example, if price statistics are the priority, then that is the area you want to focus on, but our partnership with ONS took a different dimension. In addition to focusing on the traditional mandate of the Institute, which is the production of statistics, we really have over the period achieved some milestones from the perspective of transformation, which is of high priority to me, and secondly, from the perspective of injecting technology or contemporary ways of dispensing our duty as a National Statistical Office. So from an individual point of view, it has it has been beneficial to the mission that I have, and since then we have kept on working in the area of transformation.

MF

Listening to what you have to say there, it does sound as though some of the big challenges you face at the moment are not too dissimilar from the ones faced by ONS, all about modernising statistics, particularly using big data and new technology.

SA

Indeed, and I must say that it is a wave across all national statistical offices, because we are now trying to complement traditional surveys and censuses with non-traditional data sources i.e. Big Data, administrative data, citizens generated data and other geospatial resources. So collaborating is the key thing here, because this is new to the statistical community. So it's important we collaborate to learn how you are dealing with issues that are not consistent with the production of official statistics. Now as a global community, we are all thinking about how to use citizens generated science, I mean, getting citizens to provide us with data. And this is an area in which there isn't any National Statistical Office that can claim authority, because the approach and the processes are pretty not consistent with the guidelines for production of official statistics. So it's important to learn how countries are doing it and see how we can collaborate to get this done.

MF

Yes, in the last episode of our podcast, interestingly, we talked about the challenges of getting our citizens here in the UK to take part in surveys. Are Ghanaians friendly to what you're trying to achieve? Or are they perhaps sceptical as well and difficult to engage?

SA

I wouldn't say they're sceptical, I think they really feel part of it. And that is one of the strengths of citizen generated data, because if you package it in a way that it is more demand driven, rather than supply, you don't just go and tell them ‘do this because I know how it's supposed to be done’, but instead give them the platform to tell the National Statistical Office what their experiences are, provide them with platforms that they can easily engage so that they can feel part of the process and they really own the product. In our case, it is not a product that is owned by the statistical service but it is a product that is owned by the sub national agencies, and that is, as I said earlier, the beauty of citizen generated data. It is co-creation and co-ownership of the statistical product. So they are not sceptical, they are very receptive to it, and they are getting a better understanding of what we do as a National Statistical Office.

MF

Thinking internationally, thinking globally, what sort of shape do you think the world's statistical system is in now, as a result of partnerships like this or other developments, generally looking across Africa and looking beyond Africa, when we think about key issues, particularly climate change - how good is the statistical system now in tracking these very important changes, and the impacts they're having?

SA

We have as national statistical offices been very content with the traditional statistics - labour statistics, price statistics, GDP - and you do that either monthly, quarterly, or in some instances annually, and even the social indicators, I mean, it's only a few countries like the UK that has been able to do social indicators annually, for those of us in the Global South, a lot of the social indicators are being collected every five years, or every seven to eight years. So this was the way national statistical offices, up until about 2017 or 2018, were shaped. But with the data revolution that we saw around 2014, and since the World Development Report, the data for better lives document, that came out in 2021, clearly, we now have to approach statistics from a different point of view.

And this is simply asking the question, how do I contextualise the statistics beyond what international communities would be expecting national statistical offices to do? I mean, now we are doing everything possible to ensure that we have a monthly GDP, and this is something that we are also learning from the partnership with ONS, because we are aware that they are developing models to ensure that beyond GDP they have some indicators that would readily give us insight on economic performance.

And related to the issue of climate change that you are you talking about Miles, it's one of the areas that you cannot simply dispense your statistics in that one area as a standalone National Statistical Office, because this is something that has a continental dimension, something that has a global dimension. And at the moment we have data sitting in different silos, and the only thing that we can do is through partnership, see how we can bring these datasets together to help us get a better understanding of issues around climate change.

So going forward, in my point of view, if we really want to sustain the transformation that we are seeing as a global Statistical Office, the only way out is through partnership, is through collaboration. And one of the things that I'm putting on the table is that we better begin to measure partnerships. Because we've treated partnerships as a qualitative engagement. And really, nobody knows which partnerships are working and which are not working. So if we're able to measure it, we can more clearly see the benefits of partnerships, although we all hold the view that it is the way to go.

MF

Interesting what you said about how we've traditionally concentrated on those classical measures of economic progress, and notably GDP. You might be interested to hear that the charity Oxfam, the big NGO, was in the news here in the UK recently when they said that GDP was ‘colonialist’, and it was ‘anti-feminist’, because it ignored the huge economic value of unpaid work, which they said is largely undertaken by women.

Well, whether you agree with that or not, it does perhaps highlight the need for going beyond GDP and producing these alternative, and perhaps richer, wider measures of economic progress and economic value.

SA

I mean, I clearly associate with that submission, and we currently doing some work with the United Nations Development Programme on the National Human Development Report. And the focus of this report is exactly what you are talking about, Miles. We are looking at the current value of work, and we are looking at the future value of work. And we are going beyond the definition of who is employed, which strictly looks at whether the work that you are doing comes with remuneration or not, because once you broaden it and look at the value of work, you definitely have the opportunity to look at people who are doing unpaid work, and indeed their contribution to the progress that we are seeing as a human society, and the National Human Development Report has a sharp focus on this gender issue. They're going to look at that closely. And again, this is coming on the backdrop of an ongoing annual household income and expenditure survey that we are doing. So traditionally, government and international organisations would ask what is your employment and what is your unemployment rate? And then in this report, we tell them that we need to begin to look at those who are working, but we see they're not employed, simply because they are not working for pay or profit, and the proportion of people who are in there, and then once you disaggregate based on sex, age and geography, it's so revealing that we are losing a number of insights from the perspective of unpaid work. And so I fully subscribe to that view.

MF

That's interesting. Professor, for now thank you very much, and I hope you'll join the conversation again later, but we're going to broaden out to talk about, well, it’s actually a related development, Emily, talking about women and unpaid work, that's been another theme of ONS’s work with the UN Economic Commission for Africa.

EMILY POSKETT

There was a request put forward by national statistic offices around Africa to undertake leadership training, and this was part of the country's modernization vision. Countries recognise that in order to achieve modernisation, they need to have strong leadership. So they asked the UNECA to deliver leadership training and ONS partnered with UNECA to design and pilot this leadership training programme in a range of countries. As part of delivering that we noticed and recognised a lack of female leaders in a number of National Statistics Offices around the continent, and thought with partners about what we can do to help support that, so now as well as running a leadership training for the top tier of leadership in in each organisation, we also run a women into leadership training for potential future female leaders from within the staff. And it's been really, really successful. Some of the feedback that we've had from leaders in those organisations is that they've seen their female staff becoming more confident, more outspoken, more ambitious, putting themselves forward for positions, putting their ideas forwards as well, and generally feeling more confident to contribute in the workplace. We're really proud of that success and hope to roll it out in many more countries around the continent.

MF

A country that's the other side of Africa in a number of important senses, and that is Somalia, which of course if you've followed the news to any extent over the last few decades, you'll know the serious turmoil that's affected that part of Africa, Tim Harris, bringing you in, what's been going on in Somalia that the ONS has been involved in, particularly when it comes to measuring population and population movement. Tell us about that.

TIM HARRIS

Well, as you say, Somalia is a very fragile context. It's been affected by conflict and climate change and environmental issues for many years. And that's made it very challenging to collect information, statistical information, on a range of things. But particularly on population, which is a key underpinning piece of statistics which any country needs, and in fact, there hasn't been a census in Somalia since the 1970s, almost 50 years now, but there are plans to do a census next year, with support from the UN Population Fund, UNFPA, and other various institutions in Somalia and development partners, as well as the Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office. And Emily's international development team are also trying to form a partnership, or are forming a new partnership, with the Somalia National Bureau of Statistics. So there are plans to do a census next year, and we're really in the preparatory phase for that at the moment. And we're looking to see in our team how we can use data science, new techniques, new data sources, to try and help prepare to run that census.

One of the particular issues in Somalia is that there are significant numbers of people who are displaced from where they usually live, by the conflict, by climate change. There's also been a drought for the last few years, and so there are hundreds of thousands, in fact millions, of people who are displaced from where they usually live. They tend to congregate in what we call Internally Displaced People Camps, or IDP camps. So they're not refugees, they haven't crossed an international boundary, but they are displaced from where they usually live. And these IDP camps tend to be quite fluid and dynamic. They're often in areas that are difficult to get to, so information on them is very difficult to obtain. They change very quickly, they grow, they contract, and a lot of them are on private land. So we're looking to see whether we can use new data techniques, and new data sources, to give us information about the broad scale of population in that area.

MF

And those new data sources are necessary presumably because it's very difficult to actually get out and physically see these people in those areas and count them physically.

TH

That's right, and they change very quickly. So if you're running a census, you want to know where your people are, so you can send the right number of enumerators to the right places, you can draw boundaries of enumeration areas and so on.

MF

You need an address register essentially, but these are people effectively without addresses.

TH

That's right. That's the way that you do it in the UK. It's not possible in many of these IDP camps in Somalia. So we're looking to see whether we can use high resolution satellite imagery, which we can task for a particular period of time, say in the next week or the next month. And we use that satellite imagery to see whether we can identify structures on the ground in these camps. And in fact, the UN Population Fund has been doing this in a very manual way for some time now. So someone looks at the satellite imagery, and they put a point on each tent, and they try and count the tents and the structures within these camps. That's obviously a very time-consuming way of doing it. So we're looking to see can we do it in a more automated way.

So we've procured some satellite data and we've developed what we call training data. So in certain parts of the camps, we manually draw around the outlines of the tents, and we use techniques called machine learning. We show computers what areas are tents and what areas are not tents. And we try and train them using these algorithms to be able to predict in areas they haven't seen which areas are tents and which areas are not tents. So we're trying to develop models where we can use high resolution satellite imagery to predict the areas where there are tents, to produce numbers of tents, and in this way, we can help to estimate the broad numbers of people in these areas, and that can feed into the preparations for the census to help it run more smoothly and more efficiently.

MF

And trying to count an ever-shifting population allowance, in that we've got seasonal variations going on, some people unfortunately being evicted, and then you've got a population that would be nomadic anyway.

TH

People in these camps, they’re a whole mixture of people, some who've been forced to move because of drought, some have been forced to move because of conflict, and as you say, there are large numbers of nomadic people as well. And they have tended to also congregate in these IDP camps in recent times because of the drought and other climate conditions.

MF

And it's thought there could be up to 3 million people at the moment living under those conditions in Somalia.

TH

That's right. I mean, that I think highlights one of the particular issues, in that the numbers are very uncertain. So there is some information from camp management administrative data, there is some information from some limited surveys that the Somalia National Bureau of Statistics has undertaken, but the estimates from those two different sources produce very, very different results. And so this is what we're trying to do, to see whether objectively we can count the number of tents, and therefore have some objective measure of at least the number of tents and structures, obviously then we need to move to how many of those tents and structures might be occupied. How many people on average might be in each of those tents and structures. But can we add something to the information context that produces some more objective measures, at least of the number of tents and the number of structures in those areas.

MF

Well, that's the kind of cutting-edge stuff that the Data Science Campus is all about. But Emily, the ONS has been involved in other censuses in Africa over the longer term, hasn't it?

EMILY POSKETT

Yes, that's right, Miles. So we've been involved in a number of censuses around Africa, including Ghana, also Kenya, Rwanda and a number of other countries through our partnership with the UNECA. And we've been able to really support countries to move from using paper for data collection to using tablets for data collection, during what they call the 2020 census round. And between ONS and the UNECA, we've been able to support on a number of different aspects, including how to make the most of that tablet technology. So you don't just move from using paper to using tablets and do the same processes. There are a number of advantages to using tablets in terms of how you can monitor the quality of the data coming in in real time, and how you can speed up that data collection and that data processing, and we've been able to work with NSOs around the continent on that.

We've also been using modern data matching techniques to support countries with their post enumeration surveys, which is a way of testing and improving the quality of the census. We've also been working with partners on using data visualisation and new techniques for improving the dissemination and user engagement with the products coming out of the census and therefore increasing the value of the census data products.

MF

It's interesting what you say about introducing tablet technology for data gathering in the field, to be honest, it’s not that long ago that the ONS actually moved to use that, rather than the traditional what was once described as ‘well-meaning people with clipboards’ going around asking questions. And it strikes me that in developing and working with these partner countries, the sort of methods the sort of technology being introduced, is not far behind where we're at really is it?

EP

No, absolutely. The ONS experts that get involved in these projects really learn a huge amount from the partners that they're working with as well, because often the partners we're working with have far fewer resources to deliver on similar goals. So the staff have to be incredibly innovative and use all sorts of different techniques and resources in order to achieve those goals. And people coming from ONS will learn a huge amount by engaging with partners.

MF

Well, on the modernisation theme, the census is another area where we've been working with Ghana isn't it, Professor?

PROFESSOR SAMUEL ANNIM

That's correct. We had support in all three phases of the census engagement, that is before the data collection, during the data collection, and after the data collection. We were very clear in our minds that we were going to use tablets for the data collection. And one of the things that we didn't know, or struggled with, had to do with the loading of the materials onto the tablet for the data collection.

Our original plan would have taken us about six months or four months to do that. And it wasn't going to be new for Ghana. We had other countries that had taken that length of time just to load the materials onto the tablet to enable the data collection exercise. And through the ONS and UNECA collaboration, we got technical assistance to provision the tablets in a much shorter duration. If I recall correctly, it took about six weeks to get all the items on the tablet. And we had been using tablets for data collection, but we hadn’t been able to do remote real-time data monitoring because we didn't have a dashboard. We didn't know how to develop it. And through the partnership we were able to get a dashboard. The benefit of that was that after 44 days of exiting the field, we were able to put out a preliminary report on the census because during every day of the census we had a good sense of what the numbers were, whatever corrections we had to make we were making them. So after 44 days of exiting the field, we were able to announce the preliminary result.

MF

Wow, you had a provisional population total after 40 days?

SA

44 days, yes.

MF

44 days! Well, that puts certain countries to shame, I think, but anyway, let's not dwell on that. That's very impressive, Professor. And there's another project you've been working on, which I suppose is close to your heart as an economist, and that's the production of CPI? Modernising that?

SA

Absolutely. Absolutely. One of the first things that happened when I took office in 2019 was as part of the partnership, I visit ONS to understand what they are doing and how the collaboration can be deepened. And one of the things that we explored, and that was the first time I had heard of it, was how to produce a reproducible analytical pipeline. And all that simply means is that if you keep on doing something over and over again, you should think about automating the process. And that is the relationship that we have when it comes to CPI now. We have completely moved away from Excel. When I got in I said in addition to excel, let's use data, because when the process is not automated, and you have heavy dependence on human beings doing it, the likelihood of error is high. So we really bought into this and now we do our traditional ways, Excel, data, and then we do the reproducible analytical pipeline to compare the results. And ultimately, we're going to move away from the traditional XLS database and rely on this automated process. And this again, would allow us to hopefully reduce the length of time that it takes. So that is the extent to which we are modernising our CPI based on our collaboration.

MF

That’s very impressive. And so through the process of speeding up the lag time of those regular indicators, you get a much timelier picture of what's going on in the economy.

EMILY POSKETT

This is one of the areas we will be working with a number of partners on. This idea of using new technology to deliver reproducible analytical pipelines and really, this is where national statistics offices around the world, but particularly those with low resources, can really utilise new technology to save time and improve quality. And this is something that we're really excited to be working with a number of different offices on, on a number of different topics, to really save human resources and ultimately improve quality.

MF

Tim, bringing you in...

TIM HARRIS

I think this really illustrates one of the other benefits of data science. We've talked a lot about the mobile phone records, call detail records, and their use in Ghana for producing mobility statistics, talked about using satellite imagery and machine learning in Somalia. But data science, and the tools of the digital age, can do a lot more of the basic underpinning work in statistical modernisation really well, and I think we really need to focus on that and see where we can benefit from that. And the work that Professor Annim talks about, about automating the CPI, I think that is really important. For that we can use the tools of coding, lessons from software engineering, like version control, and auditing processes, to really help us to get much greater efficiencies in these key statistical processes which any statistics office undertakes.

And we've been very pleased to work with the Ghana Statistics Service on automating their consumer price index. I think that we're seeing that it's speeded up the process, it's reduced the scope for human error, it’s enabled us to put in quality assurance checks. The process has enabled us to produce much more transparent processes, and processes that can be maintained over time, because people can understand and see what's been done rather than things being hidden in a black box. So this process of automating statistical processes is really important.

I think the way we've engaged with the Ghana Statistics Service also highlights what we're trying to do in terms of building capacity for people within statistics offices to do this work for themselves. So partly we've done some of the work to help them automate. But we've also tried to build the capacity of Professor Annim and his colleagues so that they can then do this work themselves and take it forward, and not only within the consumer price index, but also seeing how they can plan more strategically about how this work can be done in other areas of statistics production.

MILES FLETCHER

Emily, what are the priorities for the future of this international development work of the ONS?

EMILY POSKETT

So our priority for the next phase of this work is to continue with the partnerships that we have and to build new partnerships. So Tim mentioned that we are working towards a new partnership with the Somalia National Bureau of Statistics. We're also considering new partnerships in Tanzania and Zimbabwe, to add to the ones we already have in Ghana, Rwanda, Kenya, Namibia and with the UNECA. And that's just in Africa. We're also looking to see what we can do to support in other regions. We have a partnership with Jordan, and a new one with the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics, and we're looking to do more in that region and beyond into Asia and the Pacific as well, but also looking to consolidate the kind of topics which we've worked on previously. So we've mentioned census, data science, women into leadership training, open SDG platform, and we're also looking to do more in new topic areas. So we're looking to do more in climate and environment statistics. We think this is a really important area that we're looking to do more in, in geography and geographical disaggregation of data.

And I think we're looking to do more really on the usability of statistical outputs and dissemination of statistical outputs. I think a number of our partners do a really great job of collecting data, but there's a lot more that can be done to make use of new technology to better disseminate and improve the use of that data. So we're ambitious in the reach that we have with our small budget, but we want to make sure that we don't lose sight of sustainability, and by spreading ourselves too thinly, we could reduce the sustainability of the work that we do, and I think we're forever trying to balance off those two things.

MF

Professor Annim, perhaps I could give you the last word on this. How do you see the future of collaboration between the ONS and Ghana?

PROFESSOR SAMUEL ANNIM

We really want to push the collaboration beyond the two statistical agencies, and let me indicate that that’s started already. One of the things that we want to achieve is more utilisation of our data. I mean, we are fine with the production of it. We are technical people. We can continue to improve on it. But what I see with this partnership is to scale our relationship as two national statistical offices. Our relationship should be scaled up to the data users. So we don't want to just sit as two statistical offices, improving the production of statistics, but really getting into the realm of the utilisation of statistics, and that is where we need to bring in other government agencies, based on what ONS and GSS are nurturing.

MF

There you have it, statistics are important, but it's outcomes that really matter.

That's it for another episode of ‘Statistically Speaking’, thanks once again for listening.

You can find out more about our international development work, read case studies and view our ambitious strategy, setting up the ONS’s vision for high quality statistics to improve lives globally, on the ONS website, ONS.gov.uk, and you can subscribe to new episodes of this podcast on Spotify, Apple podcasts and all the other major platforms.

You can also get more information, or ask us a question, by following @ONSFocus on Twitter.

I'm Miles Fletcher and our producer at the ONS is Alisha Arthur. Until next time, goodbye

ENDS