Talking Europe

For all the talk of "Trump-proofing" Europe, much remains to be done, and there are now only a few short months before the former president takes office again, following his dramatic comeback and resounding victory in the US election. We speak to Pierre Moscovici, who was European Commissioner for Economic and Financial Affairs during the first Trump presidency. He identifies three major areas where the EU is likely to face headwinds – Ukraine, trade and climate action. Moscovici is now First President of the Court of Auditors, which is the highest body for auditing the use of public funds in France. In that capacity, he addresses the challenge of reducing France's huge public deficit.

Despite the unflattering things that Donald Trump has recently said about the European Union, Moscovici remains adamant that Europe "needs to build the best possible relationship with him. The best-case scenario is that we have a polite relationship; a transactional relationship. But Europe is not going to be Mr. Trump's priority. It never was, and it never will be. And there are major risks. What would Mr. Trump do with NATO? What would he do on Ukraine? He has said that he would create peace in 24 hours. That would mean in favour of Vladimir Putin. So we need to build our own diplomacy, our own foreign policy and our own defence – not against NATO, but so that we are capable of defending ourselves."

Moscovici warns that Trump could well try to play European states off against each other. "We could expect this new administration and this president to try to play on our divisions," he says. "Trump obviously has some advocates, like Mr Viktor Orban, who is the prime minister of Hungary and one of his admirers, and also one of his idols. We have Mr Robert Fico in Slovakia. We have far right parties here and there. This US election could inspire some political forces in Europe. So Trump could try to play on that. We need to overcome these divisions."

How should Europe handle to the tariffs that Trump has promised? "If we are facing an isolationist and protectionist threat, we need to be capable of responding," Moscovici answers. "The EU Trade Commissioner will negotiate for the whole EU, but member states also have to approve a decision. We're already responding to Chinese electric cars. We might have to respond to the US as well. Let's not anticipate too much. But let’s not be naïve either."

And on climate action, what does Trump's return to office mean for Europe? Moscovici points out that Trump withdrew from the landmark Paris climate agreement, and he supposes that Trump would "probably" do so again. "Trump also says he'll dismantle the Inflation Reduction Act (President Biden's landmark climate law). In a way, that's not bad for us, because we considered the IRA to be protectionist," Moscovici says. "But at the same time, the IRA was the US’s involvement in the global fight against climate change. Again, I think we must be prepared to have a strong common response, which is not anti-American. Mr. Trump is about 'Make America Great Again'. He's about American interests. We also have European interests. And those are not a matter of left or right. We have a common interest in Europe."

Moscovici insists that, for its part, France has to tackle its debt if it is to meet the big economic, geopolitical and environmental challenges that this moment in time calls for.

"Our debt is the highest – by expense – in Europe. It represents some 110 percent of GDP," Moscovici states. "We need to reduce our debt in order to recover some room for manoeuvre. What for? Precisely for investing. If we want to be capable of defending ourselves, we need to spend more on defence. If we want to be capable of tackling climate change, we need to invest in the greening of our industries. We cannot do that if we are too indebted, because we have no room for manoeuvre. And there are other points. For example, the Draghi report, led by the former Italian prime minister and former ECB chair Mario Draghi, proposed that we could have joint borrowing, as we did during Covid. But first and foremost, we need to do our homework. That means taking back control of public debt."

Programme prepared by Luke Brown, Perrine Desplats, Isabelle Romero and Oihana Almandoz.