Nov 09 2024 30 mins 6
In October, Vancouver’s real estate market exhibited mixed signals. Despite a continued decline in home prices, with the benchmark HPI dropping for the fifth consecutive month by 0.6%, a surprising surge in sales emerged. Total sales jumped 43% from September and 32% year-over-year, marking October 2024 as the third-highest sales month of the year and the most active October since 2021. Experts suggest that the rate cuts so far, combined with optimism for further reductions, may have spurred buyers back into the market. This sentiment sharply contrasts with 2022 when rising interest rates deterred buyers.
The recent U.S. election results, with Trump securing the presidency, bring significant economic implications for Canada. Key among these is the potential for new tariffs on Canadian imports to the U.S., which could add $30 billion in economic costs, with Canadian manufacturing and consumer prices bearing the brunt. This inflationary impact could strain housing affordability, as higher import costs would drive up construction expenses, potentially limiting new builds and pushing home prices higher. To counter these risks, the Bank of Canada might reduce rates further, which could increase Canadian homebuyers' purchasing power but also encourage some to enter the market amid potential economic downturns.
Affordable housing targets in Canadian cities like Ottawa and West Vancouver face substantial setbacks due to escalating construction costs and financing issues. Ottawa has fallen short of its 500-unit annual goal every year since 2020, citing a funding gap of $931 million and a 150% increase in construction costs since 2021. West Vancouver also anticipates falling short of provincial targets, estimating that only 58 affordable units will be built in 2024—well below the province’s target of 220. This affordability gap points to ongoing challenges for both public and private sectors, with limited options for expanding affordable housing despite rising demand.
The “17 Villages” initiative in Vancouver seeks to create a gentler approach to housing density, adding low-rise residential buildings, townhouses, and multiplexes within 400 meters of established retail streets. This feels like a European-inspired model that will anchor neighborhoods with walkable retail and community amenities, allowing young professionals and families to stay in these areas at potentially lower costs. Unlike high-rise developments, these “villages” aim to enhance neighborhood character, create small business opportunities, and offer diverse housing options without dramatically altering community aesthetics.
Touching on the October stats, Vancouver’s real estate inventory fell by 7% month-over-month to a five-month low but remains 25% higher than last October and 26% above the 10-year average. With over 5,400 new listings—a 17% annual increase—the market has seen an influx of choices for buyers, while inventory is the highest for October since 2014. The sales-to-active listings ratio rose back to 19%, with townhomes and apartments now moving into seller’s market territory. Detached homes saw a slight uptick in demand, but overall, the market remains balanced, favoring neither buyers nor sellers strongly.
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Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA
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Ryan Dash PREC
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