C.O.B. Tuesday

It was an honor today to welcome Dr. Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Dr. Grossi is a distinguished diplomat with an esteemed career spanning 40 years in nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament. He has served as the IAEA’s Director General since December 2019 and was re-appointed for a second four-year term beginning in December 2023. Prior to his current role, Dr. Grossi served as Argentina’s Ambassador to Austria. Other career highlights include Argentine Representative to the IAEA, President of the Nuclear Suppliers Group, Assistant Director General for Policy and Chief of the Cabinet at the IAEA, and Chief of Cabinet at the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons. He began his career as Argentine Representative to NATO. We were delighted to visit with Dr. Grossi.

In our conversation, we discuss the IAEA’s critical role in nuclear safety, development, and nonproliferation amid global challenges, including efforts to prevent nuclear accidents in active conflict zones. Dr. Grossi discusses the agency’s unprecedented decision to establish a permanent presence of IAEA experts at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine to ensure safety and security, the agency’s ongoing communication with both Ukrainian and Russian leadership to mitigate risks during wartime, and the dedication of the IAEA staff who have volunteered for these high-risk missions. We cover the IAEA’s history, which was inspired by President Eisenhower’s “Atoms for Peace” initiative, the agency’s evolving mission in regulatory and industrial standardization, the increasing interest in nuclear energy as a demand-driven solution to global power needs, and how the IAEA is supporting countries through their Milestones Program to provide guidance for adopting nuclear energy. Additionally, we explore the growing role of private capital in nuclear projects and the IAEA’s efforts to engage with international financial institutions including the World Bank to create a more favorable investing environment for nuclear energy, geopolitical dynamics influencing the sector, and the IAEA’s collaboration with nuclear CEOs, vendors, and clients worldwide. It was a profound look at the challenges and opportunities shaping nuclear energy and we are deeply grateful to Dr. Grossi for sharing his time and insights.

Mike Bradley kicked off the show by highlighting that even though broader U.S. equity markets continue to post new highs, they’re still trying to decipher Trump’s current tariff “rhetoric” from future tariff “realism.” Trump surprised markets again this weekend by vowing to impose a 100% tariff on BRICS countries that don’t/won’t commit to be anchored to the U.S. dollar. He also noted that current global events (including South Korea’s President declaring Marshall Law on Tuesday & French lawmakers possibly seeking to hold a no-confidence vote to topple the French President on Wednesday) could spill over and potentially stall the runup in U.S. equities. On the crude oil market front, WTI has traded up ~$2/bbl this week (~$70/bbl) on news the U.S. is sanctioning several foreign entities tied to the Iranian crude oil tanker “shadow fleet.” OPEC delayed their virtual meeting to Dec 5th and consensus is betting OPEC will agree to delay an oil production increase by another three months. On the natural gas front, U.S. natural gas price plunged this week to ~$3/MMBtu due to a warmer 6-10-day weather outlook and a rebound in U.S. gas production (~104bcfpd). European natural gas prices continue to stay elevated mostly due to extremely high November gas storage withdrawals. The EU raised their February gas storage target levels to 50% (up from 45%) due to growing 2025 supply concerns. On the energy equity front, Energy is among the worst performing S&P sectors this past week (down ~1%) due to the strong U.S. dollar, modest OPEC Meeting uncertainty and Canadian/Mexican crude oil