Pre-Trading Thoughts


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Apr 27 2024 5 mins  

We published this morning our earnings expectations sheet for companies under coverage in 1Q24/FY2.

  • For 1Q24, aggregated net profit will increase 40% YoY and 27% QoQ
  • For FY24, aggregated net profit will increase 38% YoY
  • Stocks trading at P/E 2024 less than 5x: ESRS, POUL, CANA, HDBK, and ADIB (sorted from lowest P/E).

The government said it will develop a payment strategy to reduce arrears owed to international oil companies.

Egypt has collected up to USD760 million from the initiative to facilitate the import of cars for expats, which ends next Monday, according to Finance Minister.

Egypt could receive USD820 million from the International Monetary Fund from June 15 onwards — shortly following the Fund’s third review of the loan program in the same month.

The IMF is anticipating that the state will wrap its stake sale for the Gabal El Zeit wind farm in the current fiscal year and thinks the sale could bring in USD339 million.

The IMF estimates the country’s financing gap at USD28.5 billion for the remainder of the loan program by 2026 when taking into account the inflows from the Ras El Hekma agreement.

The number of tourists visiting Egypt has increased 3-4% YoY in 1Q24, according to a Tourism Ministry statement.

The Cabinet approved decisions to set up a freezone, investment zone, and international tourist port in the North Coast’s Ras El Hekma.

The China State Construction Engineering Corporation (CSCEC) has inaugurated its CNY87.4 million (c.USD12.3 million) steel structures manufacturing factory in the Suez Canal Economic Zone.

Eni has reportedly “slowed down exploration operations in Egypt a little." Eni’s production in Egypt dropped by 11.7% y-o-y to 293k barrels of oil equivalent by the end of 1Q24.

State gas firm EGAS has purchased another LNG shipment as part of a plan to secure gas supplies ahead of peak consumption this summer.

The IMF estimates Egypt's financing gap during the current fiscal year at about USD9.3 billion that would be financed through the Fund's sources amounting to USD2.5 billion and USD700 million from the World Bank, among other entities and countries.

The Fund also said that the Egyptian authorities plan to increase foreign reserves to USD45.8 billion by the end of current fiscal year and to USD53.8 billion the next year.

The Fund reported that the CBE will not lend to public authorities again, with the exception of the Ministry of Finance, and will work to bring their debts to zero by the end of the next fiscal year.

Prime Minister and Finance Minister discussed a proposed tax policy document for 2024-2030 that will be used to inform and provide clarity to businesses, investors, and society at large on the country’s targets, policies, and plans for taxation over the next six years.

ORAS (FV: EGP233.65, EW) Board of Directors proposed an annual cash dividend of USD0.20/share, bringing total cash dividend for FY23 to USD0.39/share. This implies a dividend yield of 8% and payout ratio of 27% for the year.

A syndicate of 18 international institutions is putting together a EUR2.3 billion loan for the first line of the high-speed electric railway connecting Ain Sokhna and Matrouh, according to local media.

OCDI signed with Nobu to open Nobu Hotel and Restaurant East Cairo in OCDI’s EDNC project.

According to local press, FWRY is partnering with Saudi VMS and Waffarha to establish a holding company to manage Waffarha’s operations in Egypt and Saudi Arabia.

Investment management firm Act Financial got the approval on its IPO on the EGX and expects to start trading its shares within two months.

CANA is planning to establish a micro-finance company with the SMEs Development Agency.