Jul 29 2022 33 mins 4
This episode accompanies Module 12 of the course, which is about how we bring together the various sources of evidence that we've gathered.
The purpose of taking an evidence-based approach is to reduce uncertainty in our decision making, looking at likelihoods and probabilities to guide our thinking and discussions. The use of Bayes rule and Bayesian thinking are explored, so that we continue to protect ourselves from falling prey to bias (particularly confirmation bias), but that we consider alternative explanations for the evidence that we found - if our initial belief is either true or false.
The use of probabilities isn't something our brains take to easily, so there is some challenge inherent in this approach, but it is simply an extension of the overall evidence-based management approach, where we look at each type of evidence and consistently question whether it is trustworthy, robust and reliable. Once we reach the 'aggregate" stage, it's time to ask how likely is it that the claim or hypothesis we are investigating is true (or false).
Further reading / sources mentioned during the episode:
- Michal Oleszak - "On the Importance of Bayesian Thinking in Everyday Life"
- Daniel Kahnneman - "Thinking Fast and Slow"
- Nate Silver - "The Signal and the Noise"
Host: Karen Plum
Guests:
- Eric Barends, Managing Director, Center for Evidence-Based Management
- Denise Rousseau, H J Heinz University Professor, Carnegie Mellon University
Additional material with thanks to:
- Julia Galef - President and co-founder of the Center for Applied Rationality - YouTube videos
Find out more about the course here: https://cebma.org/resources-and-tools/course-modules/
