RaboResearch Agri Commodities

Mar 01 2024 129

RaboResearch Agri Commodities Podcast artwork

Rabobank's RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness team has 85 analysts working in local teams across the worldwide Rabobank network. They generate knowledge, and develop views and insights on businesses, topics and developments in the food & agribusiness sectors across the globe. All analysts have their own sector specialisations—ranging from meat and fish to dairy, vegetables, fruit and floriculture, coffee and cocoa. Please read our disclaimer here: https://research.rabobank.com/markets/en/footer/disclaimer.html

Subscribe on Podcast Addict

The cocoa rally explained

Mar 01 2024 14 mins

The cocoa rally shows no signs of slowing, with the London March24 contract up 58% YTD. Meanwhile, the New York contract set a new all-time high in the first half of February, surpassing, in nominal terms, the previous record set in 1977. Since then, prices have moved 20% higher! In this podcast, we discuss the factors contributing to this unprecedented price rally. In our view, r

January 2024 WASDE: Disciplined consumers are rewarded

Jan 16 2024 18 mins

Last Friday the USDA released a catalogue of data: the January WASDE, quarterly grain stocks, and Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings. The releases were largely bearish and confirmed the views held in our 2024 outlook (Buyers sail home on rising supplies) of higher-than-expected production and weaker demand. Consumers who have been disciplined are now being rewarded in terms of lower

Grain & oilseed markets move south

Nov 28 2023 16 mins

Join Rabobank's Agri Commodity Markets Research team for a deep dive into grain and oilseed markets. Since our bearish 2024 outlook was published on November 15, grain and oilseed prices have slid as bargaining power continues to shift from farmers to consumers. North American 2023 grain harvests are set to outpace demand and pad stockpiles, encouraging funds to take on heavy short

Bulls feed on old grain

Oct 15 2023 12 mins

The October WASDE was viewed as a bullish report by the market, with corn, soy, and wheat futures all rising following its release. For corn in particular, it was higher old crop feed demand that caught the market by surprise. Meanwhile, for wheat markets, we saw 2023/24 estimations for both global production and trade trimmed.

Softs Rally Hard

Jun 30 2023 11 mins

Since the start of the year we have seen simultaneous rallies in sugar (+15%), cocoa (+28%), and robusta coffee (+47%). This is rather unusual given these three commodities have very different fundamentals and are produced in very different countries. The threat of El Niño-related weather challenges is the one common element that has led to speculators increasing their long bets a

April WASDE: USDA Cuts Argentine Yields

Apr 13 2023 7 mins

With minimum alterations for most countries, the April WASDE's main talking point was cuts in Argentine production for soybeans, wheat, and corn amid the ongoing drought. As these cuts were expected, we saw little price action following the report's release. Eyes will now turn to next month's WASDE, which will provide the first estimates of the 2023/24 season.

Outlook 2023: Tightening the Belt

Dec 06 2022 13 mins

Join Carlos Mera and Michael Magdovitz for a look at the year ahead in ACMR's latest podcast. 2022 held unprecedented volatility for agricultural commodity markets, from the Russian invasion of Ukraine to La Niña drought across South America. Consumers suffered through a third year of an agricultural bull market. It could very well be the last. Rabobank expects broad-based price r

October 2022 WASDE: USDA Scissorhands

Oct 13 2022 10 mins

On the latest RaboResearch Agri Commodities podcast, Carlos Mera and Michael Magdovitz discuss the October WASDE report. Poor 2022/23 US grain and oilseed harvests are forcing the USDA to become increasingly adept with scissors. As it cuts production, the USDA must increasingly (and tragically) cut demand to prevent ending stockpiles from disappearing. Relative to expectations, the

September WASDE: USDA’s Struggle Session

Sep 16 2022 17 mins

In the latest RaboResearch Agri Commodities episode, Global Grains & Oilseeds Strategist Steve Nicholson joins ACMR Senior Analyst Michael Magdovitz to discuss the September WASDE. ACMR’s August WASDE Report predicted the USDA “may rue their bold move” to raise US soybean yields. Indeed, this week the USDA did a dramatic 180, cutting US soy (and corn) yields and reducing dema

Momentum

Aug 16 2022 14 mins

On the latest ACMR podcast, Senior Analyst Michael Magdovitz and Analyst Paul Joules discuss the recent price movements in CBOT Corn, Wheat, and Soybean futures. Tune in to hear about the 2022/23 harvests, the latest WASDE report, funds bouncing back, and overarching demand-side concerns. From a supply standpoint, heavy heat across the US and Europe poses a significant risk to feed