Moody's Talks - Emerging Markets Decoded

May 13 2024 49
Moody's Talks - Emerging Markets Decoded Podcast artwork

Moody’s experts from around the globe and external guests join hosts Scott Phillips and Vittoria Zoli discuss macro, financial and credit trends shaping the world of emerging markets. Published by Moody’s Investors Service.

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Speculative-grade default rate for emerging market companies improves with macro conditions

May 13 2024 13 mins  
The default rate will decline to 3.3% by the end of Q1 2025, far below the peak of nearly 15% at the end of 2022 which was driven by the Russia-Ukraine war and China’s property market woes.

Middle East: from geopolitical tensions to Islamic finance

Apr 30 2024 15 mins  
Moody’s analysts discuss the increased risk for sovereigns from escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict, and then shift to the growing demand for Islamic finance.

EM macro conditions are improving unevenly as GDP growth stabilizes and inflation slows

Apr 15 2024 11 mins  
Growth will slow in 2024 then stabilize in 2025 in most emerging markets. We have raised our forecasts for Asia, Central-Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa but lowered them for Latin America.

China’s push to shift economic growth engines faces hurdles but will benefit some EMs

Apr 01 2024 15 mins  
It will take time and effort for sectors like tech and EVs to drive China’s GDP growth, and geopolitics is a risk. But emerging markets supplying relevant goods and services to China stand to benefit.

Digging into key credit stories for emerging market sovereign investors across the globe

Mar 18 2024 20 mins  
China’s 2024 policy priorities and influence across Asia, the state of European consumers, Romania’s fiscal deficit, Argentina’s economy and Ecuador’s state of emergency are among the top stories.

A focus on West Africa, where bright spots shine through political, security and climate risks

Mar 06 2024 15 mins  
Positive developments include strong GDP growth in Côte d’Ivoire and Senegal, a lifting of sanctions on Niger, and a few countries tapping international bond markets so far this year.

State-contingent debt instruments gain traction in restructurings as sovereign defaults rise

Feb 20 2024 14 mins  
These instruments provide flexibility on debt-service payments and can help bridge differences in restructuring talks. Protracted talks delay critical structural reforms and increase default risk.

Emerging market central banks lower rates while US Fed signals rate cuts are not imminent

Feb 05 2024 12 mins  
Recent interest rate cuts in Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Hungary are among the signs that EM financial conditions are improving. The primary market for EM bond issuance is likely to remain strong.

Middle East, North Africa credit conditions are stable in 2024 despite elevated geopolitical risks

Jan 22 2024 16 mins  
Conditions are more stable for sovereigns, banks and companies in the Gulf Cooperation Council region than in North Africa and Levant. An escalation of the Israel-Hamas military conflict is main risk.

Five top-of-mind credit stories for EM sovereign investors in 2024

Jan 08 2024 17 mins  
Redefault risk in Argentina, general elections in South Africa, financial conditions and debt affordability in Egypt, monetary policy in Turkiye and economic growth in China are top stories this year.