Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast

The economists were mostly on-target with today's CPI report, at least with the headline and core figures. But that doesn't mean that there was nothing going on underneath the surface. Below the big headlines, some things are getting better and some things...aren't. What does it all mean, and does the Fed have some cover to cut rates? Listen to this episode to hear the Inflation Gu

"They couldn't hit an elephant at this distance!" - General John Sedgewick, Union, US Civil War, moments before he was struck by a bullet in the eye. The tradition of 'famous last words' is alive and well, especially at the Federal Reserve and Treasury. From Bernanke saying the subprime crisis would be contained, to Yellen and Powell describing inflation as 'transitory,' and far be

There are several pernicious myths about the velocity of money that seem to never die. "Friedman said velocity is stable." "Velocity is just a plug number, so it is random." "Velocity is permanently impaired and only declines over time." These drive the Inflation Guy bananas, and from time to time he feels the need to talk about velocity. In this episode, the IG describes the main

We don't know if the origin of the 'ten most dangerous words in the English language' was Ronald Reagan, or if the story predates him. But those words, "I'm from the government, and I'm here to help you," are the theme to today's podcast. The Inflation Guy interprets some recent news stories, but ties it all together with a crucial observation about what happens if the 'scarce reso

On this month's CPI report, the Inflation Guy addresses yet another high-side surprise and discusses the details, along with how this fits into the continuing narrative. Curious about how this concerns ponies? You'll have to listen to the episode! NOTES Blog for this month’s CPI: Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (March 2024) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://infla

Okay, buckle up because the Inflation Guy here is going to cover some big-time concepts. Wayyyy back in 2003, some guys named Jarrow and Yildirim explained how inflation acts just like foreign exchange, except not foreign and not on an exchange. No, no, stay with me here. Turns out they were right, and a lot of what is happening today - and the mistakes in interpretation that are b

Every once in a while, it is a good rigor to take all of those sticky notes that festoon your desk and put them into one, organized, document. At least, that's what the Inflation Guy tells himself. On the other hand, they say 'a clean desk means someone else is in charge.' Still, it was getting to be a fire hazard. In this episode, the Inflation Guy tackles a few disparate stories

Another month, another above-consensus CPI print. The Inflation Guy tears into the data like a feral cat, ripping away the fatty bits to get at the meaty part. Okay, maybe that was too graphic. Anyway, this cat points to several signs in this month's inflation report that inflation is starting to get 'sticky' at a higher level than we'd like it to, and the recent inflation decelera

Both gold and crypto are occasionally put forth by promoters as having inflation-hedging qualities. Which of these has a better claim? Or are they both 'real assets' that can help you defend your money? Now that mutual funds and ETFs are launching seemingly weekly to hold BTC and other forms of crypto, 'democratizing access' to this 'asset class,' it is worth asking whether these f

This somewhat longer episode has a little bit of potpourri at the beginning, as the Inflation Guy covers the OER-Primary Rents divergence, the decline of Reverse RP balances, and the effect of AI on inflation...but the meat of the podcast is a discussion about a product (which a listener sent to the Inflation Guy) that resembles an inflation-linked annuity but in a mutual fund form