Global Data Pod

Apr 17 2025 100 ep. 25 mins 83
Global Data Pod Podcast artwork

Economists from J.P. Morgan Global Research offer their analysis on the economic data, macro trends and monetary and fiscal policy impacting the world today.

  Business
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Global Data Pod Weekender: Turn of the screw

Apr 17 2025 38 mins  
Bruce Kasman and Joe Lupton discuss how the goods sector activity boomed through 1Q but the signal to take is far less clear, particularly as sentiment looks to be souring. We maintain our recession call but also see the uniqueness of the event and note that timing is uncertain in an otherwise resilient expansion. Central banks turn a bit more cautious. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Jos

Global Data Pod Weekender: When elephants fight

Apr 11 2025 45 mins  
Bruce Kasman is joined by Joe Lupton and Jahangir Aziz to discuss the post-Liberation Day back-peddling that has led some to breathe a sigh of relief. Not us. A 10% universal tax is still a very large shock (7.5x the 2018-19 trade war) and the huge 145% tax (and rising) on China is prohibitive. You cannot stop trade between the world’s two largest economies and not expect pain ev

Global Data Pod Weekender: That’s gonna leave a mark

Apr 04 2025 32 mins  
A dramatic shift from the Trump administration toward less business-friendly policies leads us to revise up our already above-consensus recession odds to 60%. Along with the magnitude, the design of US tariff policies is hard to make sense of. Tit-for-tat retaliatory policies are underway. Beyond the cyclical damage, the long-term harm to the US is a much larger concern. Speaker

Global Data Pod Weekender: Debating the R word

Mar 28 2025 29 mins  
Our baseline forecast incorporates sustained expansion but recession risks have become elevated – to a 40% probability – on concerns that aggressive US policies hit business and household sentiment. With the latest tariff increases set to push US core inflation above 4%ar next quarter, a household sector with a healthy balance will need to show a willingness to lower its saving

Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation Monitor

Mar 26 2025 28 mins  
Nora Szentivanyi joins Bruce Kasman to discuss key takeaways from the latest Global Inflation Monitor and how the incoming data and tariff news are shaping our inflation views. Global goods prices are firming even before tariffs were put in place, with pressures broadening outside the US. As more tariffs are imposed, this puts the onus on still-sticky services inflation to do much

Global Data Pod Weekender: Front-loading

Mar 21 2025 35 mins  
Risks to the global expansion are elevated in the face of a broadening trade war, but incoming news highlights a still underlying resilient expansion. The trade drag weighing down 1Q25 US growth is reflecting a boost elsewhere, particularly in Asia where the latest news points to a surge in trade activity in advance of prospective tariffs. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton T

Global Data Pod Weekender: Fear is the expansion killer

Mar 14 2025 29 mins  
The data through January tell a story of a moderating expansion, but the ongoing US policy turmoil is weighing on February sentiment readings. Absent a détente in the US war on trade and other domestic austerity measures, we put the risk of recession this year at 40%. Next week’s Fed meeting should aim to not make waves. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was

Global Data Pod Weekender: Trump sees his shadow, 4 more weeks of tariff exemptions

Mar 07 2025 33 mins  
A tumultuous week in the US trade war leaves the world only with modestly higher tariffs on China but more downside risk. While tariffs on USMCA-compliant goods got pushed back (again) to April, noncompliant goods (estimated at 20% of total imports) will be tariffed at 25%. The impact of the chaos alongside the austerity measures of DOGE are likely to weigh on confidence and growth

Global Data Pod Research Rap: Sticky inflation meets tariffs

Mar 04 2025 30 mins  
Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Greg Fuzesi and Michael Hanson to discuss the key takeaways from our latest Global Inflation Monitor and inflation risks stemming from higher tariffs . While there are reasons to fade elements of the January upside inflation surprise, global core inflation remains stuck at a 3% pace and we have nudged our 1Q25 forecast upward to 3.4%ar. Moreover, headl

Global Data Pod Research Rap: Some Unpleasant Tariff Arithmetic

Mar 03 2025 18 mins  
Michael Hanson and Murat Tasci, of the US Economics team, discuss their latest Research Note on the challenges for meeting the many disparate objectives of the Trump tariffs, and what that might mean for tariff revenues. Speakers: Michael Hanson, Senior US and Canadian EconomistMurat Tasci, Senior US Economist This podcast was recorded on March 3, 2025. This communication is pr