Global Data Pod

Nov 20 2024 100 ep. 22 mins 75
Global Data Pod Podcast artwork

Economists from J.P. Morgan Global Research offer their analysis on the economic data, macro trends and monetary and fiscal policy impacting the world today.

  Business
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Global Data Pod EM Edge: Don’t judge a book by its cover

Nov 20 2024 35 mins  
Katie, Nicolaie and Steven debate exposures across EM Edge to the potential policy shifts of a second Trump administration. EM Edge would seem the most exposed given their low diversification, high funding needs, openness to trade and shallower local capital markets. Yet, starting points are generally more favorable than compared to past global shocks as fundamentals have improved.

Global Data Pod Weekender: Vibe check on deck

Nov 15 2024 34 mins  
The combination of resurgent consumer spending and persistently sticky inflation near 3% is challenging consensus calls for Goldilocks. Next week’s flash PMIs will be the first data prints post US election, and we will be closely watching the vibe expressed in the future output components. Manufacturing should indicate caution given trade war concerns, while the broader all-indus

Global Data Pod Weekender: Diversity, exceptionalism, and inflation

Nov 08 2024 38 mins  
Bruce Kasman and Joe Lupton discuss how the US election is a material shock to the baseline, but one that reinforces our view that pushed back against a consensus for an immaculate disinflation. A careful assessment of the coming supply and demand shocks to the global economy will lead us to expect diverse growth outcomes but undeniably higher inflation and less policy easing. Th

Global Data Pod Weekender: Anticipation forward points the view

Nov 01 2024 28 mins  
Ahead of the all-important US election, the data tracking at the start of 4Q is mixed but supportive of a resilient expansion. A noisy October US labor report should be faded, but strong 3Q GDP growth and healthy income gains are constructive. Nevertheless, moderating wages gains should help the Fed ease at next week’s meeting while presenting an open mind about December. Elsewhe

Global Data Pod US: Data Drop – October Jobs Report Recap

Nov 01 2024 4 mins  
Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the October jobs report. Speakers: Michael Feroli Samantha Azzarello This podcast was recorded on 1 November 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan

Global Data Pod EM Edge: Differentiation is the name of the game

Nov 01 2024 29 mins  
Katie, Nicolaie, Gbolahan and Steven discuss takeaways for EM Edge economies from last week’s IMF/World Bank meetings. Investors started the year ready to increase their exposures to EM Edge economies spurred by improved fundamentals, attractive valuations and reduced US recession risks. Improving fiscal and current accounts, better growth, high nominal (and real) rates and struc

Global Data Pod Weekender: Forecasters love company

Oct 26 2024 34 mins  
The JPMorgan conference delivered a consensus around a Goldilocks macro scenario even as participants say US election outcomes look like a coin-toss. The risks of a blue versus red wave, and versus divided government lead to varied outcomes on growth, inflation, and the Fed. All of these are discussed. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on 25 October 202

Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation Monitor

Oct 24 2024 27 mins  
Nora Szentivanyi and Raphael Brun-Aguerre discuss their takeaways from the September CPI reports and how the incoming data are shaping the outlook for global inflation and monetary policy. Global headline inflation eased further to 2.7%oya, aided by falling energy prices––a decline that has supported consumer purchasing power. But core inflation is proving to be sticky around 3

Global Data Pod Weekender: More than a feeling

Oct 18 2024 26 mins  
A number of recent developments serve to reduce downside growth risks globally. In part this reflects strong US demand indicators and substantial front-loaded China policy supports, which serve to materially raise our current quarter global growth forecast. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on October 18, 2024. This communication is provided for inform

Global Data Pod EM Edge: Checking the compass

Oct 15 2024 20 mins  
Katie, Nicolaie and Steven discuss the latest economic trends in the EM Edge. Inflation for most EM Edge economies, outside of Africa, have converged to their pre-pandemic norms. The direction from here is upward, in our view. While we are not overly concerned yet, we are monitoring risks rising global food prices, increases in global energy prices and a continued hawkish re-pricin