Notes on the Week Ahead

Feb 03 2025 289 ep. 9 mins 866

Notes on the Week Ahead Podcast artwork

Listen to the latest insights from Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management to help prepare you for the week ahead.

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The Investment Implications of the Trade War

Feb 03 2025 6 mins

On Saturday, the White House announced the imposition of heavy tariffs on goods exported from Mexico, Canada and China and all three nations announced their intention to retaliate. These tariffs threaten to raise prices and slow economic activity across all four countries. While the end game of this trade war remains very uncertain, it has the potential to impact bonds, stocks and

White House Actions, Fed Reactions and Investing

Jan 27 2025 10 mins

This Wednesday, at 2:00 PM, the Federal Reserve will release a statement on monetary policy. It will, as usual, be a brief and colorless document and will look paler still in comparison to the more than 60 executive orders, proclamations and memoranda that have emanated from the White House in the first week of the President’s new term. However, the Fed’s statement and Jay Powe

The Big Picture on Debt, Deficits and Interest Rates

Jan 21 2025 12 mins

“Unsustainable!” To quote Inigo Montoya: “You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means” For decades, journalists, economists, politicians, and central bankers have said that the U.S. federal debt is on an “unsustainable” path. However, it has stayed on that path, climbing from a very manageable $3.3 trillion, or 31.5% of GDP, in fiscal 2001,

Interest Rates, Inflation and the Uncertainty Tax

Jan 13 2025 12 mins

In football, it’s always better, at the snap of the ball to disguise your intentions. Are you going to pass or run the ball? Is it a zone defense or man-to-man? In business or in military maneuvers the same rule applies – keep them guessing. However, in macro-economic management, it is better to make your plans clear. That way businesses can feel more confident in hiring and in

Stability and Extremes

Jan 06 2025 10 mins

Over the holiday season, we got to spend some time with our very charming granddaughter and, as a bonus, I am now fully re-acquainted with all the verses of “The Wheels on the Bus”. As we enter 2025, the American economy is rather like an old school bus – slow but steady, reliable and resilient. It generally moves forward. However, it is not invulnerable. The wheels of the bu

Reading Between the Lines (On the Direction of Monetary Policy)

Dec 16 2024 7 mins

When testifying to the Senate Banking Committee back in 1987, the newly-appointed Fed Chairman, Alan Greenspan, provided some insight into his views on communication: “Since becoming a central banker”, he said, “I have learned to mumble with great incoherence. If I seem unduly clear to you, you must have misunderstood what I said.” His successors have generally tried to be

Initial Conditions

Dec 09 2024 11 mins

Many years ago, I worked for the Office of Revenue and Tax Analysis at the State of Michigan and, from time to time, Saul Hymans and his colleagues from the University of Michigan would visit the state government in Lansing to discuss the latest output from their macro economic models of the U.S. and Michigan economies. As they started into their presentation, I was always eager to

Irish Lessons

Dec 02 2024 8 mins

This week will be full of market-moving economic data. We expect purchasing manager surveys and light-vehicle sales to indicate steady demand in November, as investors await Friday’s jobs report. Recent data on unemployment claims point to continued momentum and payroll growth should rebound from October’s meagre reading which was suppressed by both weather and strike activity.

Policy Changes and the Macro Outlook

Nov 18 2024 11 mins

I’ve been running my own econometric model of the U.S. economy for almost 30 years now. The basic structure is simple. You start by forecasting the components of demand, that is to say, consumption, investment, trade and government spending. This gives you an initial projection of real GDP growth. You then feed this into labor market equations, along with some demographic assumpt

The Investment Implications of the Republican Sweep

Nov 11 2024 12 mins

The most urgent task facing investors in the wake of the 2024 elections is figuring out how much of the Trump agenda, as broadly outlined on the campaign trail, will be put into effect. A full and literal implementation across taxes, trade and immigration could have unwelcome consequences for the economy in both the short and long run. A more partial implementation, (which seemed t