Macro Bytes

Feb 26 2025 128 ep. 29 mins 51
Macro Bytes Podcast artwork

Macro Bytes

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Can Friedrich Merz solve Germany’s problems?

Feb 26 2025 25 mins  
The CDU-CSU has emerged as the largest party from the German federal elections, and Friedrich Merz will almost certainly become the next Chancellor at the head of a coalition government. But Germany faces profound economic and geopolitical headwinds, amid a contracting industrial sector and a chaotic European security situation. Paul and Luke speak to Lizzy Galbraith and Felix Feat

Five years on, is Brexit finally paying off?

Feb 13 2025 22 mins  
Much like the effects of the French revolution, it may be too early to tell the long-term economic impacts of Brexit. UK growth and investment have almost certainly been lower, and inflation higher, than otherwise. But as President Trump threatens to tear up the global trading system including targeting the EU with tariffs, and European regulation risks stifling the growth benefits

Tariff man strikes back, or the phantom trade war?

Feb 06 2025 35 mins  
Investors can be forgiven for having tariff whiplash, after the threat and then temporary reprieve of 25% US tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and the implementation of additional 10% tariffs on China. Paul and Luke speak to James McCann, Bob Gilhooly, and Lizzy Galbraith from the abrdn economics team about the thinking behind President Trump’s tariff strategy, the economic and monet

Could Trump devalue the dollar with a “Mar-a-Lago Accord”?

Jan 30 2025 28 mins  
The US dollar is rising as investors price in Trump’s policy platform of tariffs, tax cuts, and deregulation. But key members of the new US administration want to see a weaker dollar to boost domestic manufacturing. Paul and Luke discuss this fundamental dilemma at the heart of the new administration’s economic policy, and how the US may exercise its full array of hard power to

DOGE: more bark than bite?

Jan 20 2025 27 mins  
Elon Musk is set to join the Trump administration as head of the Department of Government Efficiency. Paul and Luke speak to Lizzy Galbraith about the role and influence that Musk and DOGE may have over US fiscal policy, regulation, foreign policy, and the broader Trump agenda.

What does 2025 hold for macro and markets?

Dec 09 2024 24 mins  
The coming year is going to see more economic and geopolitical volatility for investors to navigate. Paul asks members of the abrdn economic research team to outline the big questions they are asking as we head into 2025 – including President-elect Trump’s policy choices, the prospect of ceasefires in Ukraine and the Middle East, and whether the UK Chancellor will be back with

Will the bond vigilantes return?

Nov 28 2024 30 mins  
We need to talk about debt. Global government debt is approaching 100% of global GDP. And the incoming Trump administration may be about to increase the large US fiscal deficit still further. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew discuss whether the infamous bond vigilantes will return, pushing up government borrowing costs amid fears of debt sustainability.

What does Trump mean for the economy?

Nov 07 2024 23 mins  
A Trump presidency will have important implications for tax and spending, immigration, trade policy, and regulation. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew are joined by James McCann and Lizzy Galbraith to discuss the likely tax cuts and spending measures that Trump may pursue, the prospect of a global trade war, and what all this means for monetary policy and financial markets.

A budget for growth, or for higher gilt yields?

Nov 01 2024 23 mins  
Labour’s first budget was a big one – new fiscal rules, large tax and spend increases, and a big rise in investment. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew are joined by Lizzy Galbraith to break down the measures, and assess what they mean for the UK’s economic, political and market outlook.

Has China fired its stimulus bazooka?

Oct 17 2024 22 mins  
After months of piecemeal economic policy support, Chinese stimulus has stepped up significantly and equity markets have surged higher. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew speak to Robert Gilhooly about the headwinds the Chinese economy has been facing, the risks of China slipping into ‘Japanification’, and whether recent measures represent a turning point in monetary and fiscal p