More or Less: Behind the Stats

Mar 21 2025 1003 ep. 15 mins 117k

More or Less: Behind the Stats Podcast artwork

Tim Harford and the More or Less team try to make sense of the statistics which surround us. From BBC Radio 4

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What are the chances of an asteroid hitting earth in 2032?

Mar 21 2025 8 mins

On 27 December 2024, astronomers spotted an asteroid that was potentially heading towards earth. Named 2024 YR4, it was estimated to be between 40m and 90m across, with the potential to cause massive damage if it hit a populated area of the planet.The chances of that happening, however, seemed to fluctuate significantly - ranging from 1% to a peak of 3%, before falling to virtual

Why are more people claiming disability benefits?

Mar 19 2025 28 mins

More working age people are claiming disability benefits. What's driving the trend?Is it true that the UK imprisons more people for their social media posts than Russia does?One of the country’s most important data sources has been falling apart. We find out why.Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news.Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Lizzy McNeill Producer: Natha

How did lockdown impact children?

Mar 17 2025 41 mins

In March 2020, the covid pandemic forced the UK into lockdown. Schools closed, universities went online and the economy shut down.It slowly became clear that young people were not falling victim to the virus in significant numbers - they made up a fraction of a percent of the overall death toll.But their lives were radically changed - most spending these formative ages stuck at hom

What is an IQ map and can we trust them?

Mar 14 2025 8 mins

You may have seen a map circulated on social media that claims to show the average IQ of different nations. If you look closely these numbers vary dramatically, with incredibly low scores in developing countries, including many in Africa. Unsurprisingly the map is often used as a way to bolster arguments about racial or national superiority. However, when you look at the data behin

DOGE, apples and irregular migrants

Mar 12 2025 28 mins

It’s been 12 weeks since President Trump announced the formation of DOGE, the so-called department of Government efficiency. We fact-check various claims connected with the drive to route out inefficiency. Listeners asked us to investigate the claim that 1 in 12 Londoners is an illegal immigrant. We look into the claim that imported New Zealand apples have a smaller carbon footpr

Is there really $500bn of Rare Earths in Ukraine?

Mar 07 2025 8 mins

As part of the fast-moving argument over US military support to Ukraine, the US demanded $500bn worth of access to what was variously reported as Ukraine’s rare earths or rare metals or rare minerals. But is there that amount of minerals in the ground?Presenter: Tim Harford Producer and Editor: Richard Vadon Studio Manager: James Beard Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown

Defence Spending, Rare Earths and Trunk Truths

Mar 05 2025 28 mins

Has the US really sent Ukraine $350 billion for its war effort? Is a $500billion cut of Ukraine’s rare earth minerals a good deal? How will the UK fund the governments ambitions to raise defence spending to 3%? But most important of all - how many muscles are in an elephant’s trunk?Presenter: Tim Harford Series Producer: Charlotte McDonald Reporter: Lizzy McNeill Producers: Nat

Has the US really given Ukraine more aid than Europe?

Feb 28 2025 8 mins

As negotiations to end the Ukraine war rumble on, Donald Trump seems equally interested in talking about the past, repeatedly claiming that the US has given much more aid to Ukraine than Europe has, and that Europe’s aid took the form of a loan that they’ll be getting back. Emmanuel Macron has publicly contradicted the US President - so who’s correct? Nathan Gower speaks to T

Are 150 year olds getting social security payments?

Feb 21 2025 8 mins

Last week Elon Musk revealed that he had been through the Social Security Agencies database and found millions of people aged over 100. The vast majority of these people are dead, but their accounts and social security numbers remain live.Elon claimed that he had uncovered ‘the biggest fraud ever’ prompting some news outlets to speculate that billions of dollars might be being

Has the US sent $50 million worth of condoms to Gaza?

Feb 14 2025 8 mins

On the 25th January, the US Press Secretary announced that in their bid to stop ‘fraud’ and waste DOGE had cancelled $50 million worth of condoms being sent to Gaza by the United States Agency for International Development (aka USAID). President Trump later repeated this claim, adding on that Hamas were using said condoms to make bombs to fire at Israel. On the 7th of February