Probable Causation

Ryan Sakoda talks about the effects of post-release supervision. “Abolish or Reform? An Analysis of Post-Release Supervision” by Ryan Sakoda. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Intensive Probation and Parole" by Joan Petersilia and Susan Turner. “The Effects of Low-Intensity Supervision for Lower-Risk Probationers: Updated Results from a Randomized Controlled Trial

Amanda Agan talks about how sealing criminal records affects employment. “Can you Erase the Mark of a Criminal Record? Labor Market Impacts of Criminal Record Remediation” by Amanda Agan, Andrew Garin, Dmitri Koustas, Alex Mas, and Crystal Yang. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: Probable Causation Episode 9: Michael Mueller-Smith “Ban the Box, Criminal Records, and R

Oeindrila Dube talks about a cognitive behavioral training program for police. “A Cognitive View of Policing” by Oeindrila Dube, Sandy Jo MacArthur, and Anuj Shah. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "Thinking, fast and slow? Some field experiments to reduce crime and dropout in Chicago" by Sara B. Heller, Anuj K. Shah, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan,

Erich Muehlegger talks about the effect of air pollution on crime. This episode was first posted in September 2020. "Air Pollution and Criminal Activity: Microgeographic Evidence from Chicago" by Evan Herrnstadt, Anthony Heyes, Erich Muehlegger, and Soodeh Saberian. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Crime Is in the Air: The Contemporaneous Relationship between Air Pollu

Aurelie Ouss talks about using insights from behavioral economics to reduce failures-to-appear in court. This episode was first posted in January 2020. "Nudging Crime Policy: Reducing Failures to Appear for Court" by Alissa Fishbane, Aurelie Ouss, and Anuj K. Shah. (Available from the authors upon request.) Related policy paper: "Using Behavioral Science to Improve Criminal Justice

Marguerite Burns and Laura Dague talk about the effects of Medicaid enrollment on recidivism. "In-Kind Welfare Benefits and Reincarceration Risk: Evidence from Medicaid" by Marguerite Burns and Laura Dague. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "Mental Health and Criminal Involvement: Evidence from Losing Medicaid Eligibility" by Elisa Jacome. Probable Causation Episode 60: El

William Arbour talks about how prison-based behavioral programs in Canada affect recidivism. "Can Recidivism Be Prevented From Behind Bars? Evidence From a Behavioral Program" by William Arbour. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Thinking, fast and slow? Some field experiments to reduce crime and dropout in Chicago” by Sara B. Heller, Anuj K. Shah, Jonathan Guryan, Jen

Randi Hjalmarsson talks about how punishment severity affects juries' decisions to convict. This episode was first posted in June 2020. "How Punishment Severity Affects Jury Verdicts: Evidence from Two Natural Experiments" by Anna Bindler and Randi Hjalmarsson. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Making the Crime Fit the Penalty: The Role of Prosecutorial Discretion under

Sara Heller talks about summer youth employment programs. "Summer Jobs Reduce Violence Among Disadvantaged Youth" by Sara B. Heller. "Rethinking the Benefits of Youth Employment Programs: The Heterogeneous Effects of Summer Jobs" by Jonathan M.V. Davis and Sara B. Heller OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "What Works? A Meta Analysis of Recent Active Labor Market Program Ev

Xinming Du talks about how aggressive posts on social media affect offline violence. “Symptom or Culprit? Social Media, Air Pollution, and Violence” by Xinming Du. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Experimental Evidence of Massive-Scale Emotional Contagion Through Social Networks” by Adam Kramer, Jamie Guillory, and Jeffrey Hancock. “Social Media and Protest Par