Rough Consensus with Checkmate

Dec 30 2024 12 ep. 49 mins 6

Rough Consensus with Checkmate Podcast artwork

Rough Consensus is a set of conversations between Checkmate, and the brilliant analysts who specialise in markets, macro, and Bitcoin.

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MicroStrategy Bewilderment with Jeff Walton (RC#8)

Dec 30 2024 80 mins

Today, we're releasing the latest edition of the Rough Consensus podcast with Jeff Walton (@PunterJeff) covering our thinking about MicroStrategy.Jeff was very early to the MSTR trade, and has done an extraordinary amount of work thinking through the problem. I am a huge fan of analysts who do the Proof of Work, and as we know in Bitcoin, the obvious answer is often not the correct

Memetic Markets with Murad Mahmudov (RC#7)

Nov 13 2024 53 mins

G’day Folks,Today I jumped on the phone with Murad Mahmudov, who has been around the Bitcoin and onchain world for a very long time. Back in 2018, Murad was the guest on a podcast with Pomp titled the Ultimate Bitcoin Argument, which was one of the key orange pill moments for me personally. I highly encourage everyone who hasn’t heard this discussion, to add it to your listenin

The Bitcoin Big Leagues with Alex Thorn (RC#6)

Sep 25 2024 61 mins

G’day Folks,I had the great pleasure of meeting Alex Thorn in Nashville, where we were joined by Dylan LeClaire to discuss whether the 4yr Bitcoin cycle is likely to persist. This is a question I get all the time, and one which I am still processing my own thoughts around.After listening to a tremendous monologue by Alex on the Galaxy Brains podcast (recommended add to the rotati

Crypto Market Structure with Permabull Niño (RC#5)

Sep 20 2024 68 mins

G’day Folks,Permabull Nino is one of my oldest friends in the Bitcoin industry. The two of us cut our teeth together studying and developing onchain tools and metrics over many years. PB has an accounting background, and currently works as an analyst and trader for SpaceWhale Capital. He has a wealth of experience working with derivatives, and assessing how capital rotates throug

Trading Insights from my Market Mentor, Doc (RC#4)

Sep 10 2024 67 mins

G’day Folks, today I have something really special for you, and that is I am bringing in the biggest of guns to explore what on earth is going on right now in the Bitcoin market.The latest episode of Rough Consensus is with my market mentor Doc Severson. Doc is a trader with two decades of experience, and is by far the most influential person in my market analysis career.Doc and

Rough Consensus Podcast with Joe Carlasare (Ep #3)

Aug 29 2024 79 mins

G’day Folks,Today, I had a fantastic conversation with Joe Carlasare, who carries tremendous insight into how the regulatory, legal, and macro dynamics affect global markets, and Bitcoin. We cover so much ground in this conversation, ranging from the big risk overheads in the legal world, to the core drivers of markets today, Turtle Theories, and whether 'cycles' still matter.We

Rough Consensus Podcast with Lawrence Lepard (Ep #2)

Aug 22 2024 85 mins

G’day Folks,I had the great pleasure of meeting Lawrence Lepard in Nashville, and it was only natural to follow up with a conversation centred on sound money. Without a shadow of a doubt, I would have been a goldbug if Bitcoin did not exist, and I still hold a position, and an affinity for the yellow metal.In this conversation, I wanted to explore the topics that I think would re

Podcast Launch: Rough Consensus with @TXMCTrades (EP#1)

Aug 09 2024 68 mins

G’day Folks,Today I have a real treat for you. With all the turmoil in markets this week, I wanted to jump on the phone with someone who has done serious proof-of-work understanding the wider macro landscape.This is the inaugural episode of Rough Consensus, which is a set of ad-hoc conversations I plan to have with analysts that I really respect. Few analysts fit the bill as well

Bitcoin Cycle Top Hunting: June 2024

Jun 18 2024 7 mins

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit newsletter.checkonchain.comOne of the most requested topics I receive, and at no surprise, is to cover how I think about finding Bitcoin cycle tops. You will often hear me saying that I don’t anchor to a specific price, nor date target, as these are ultimately completely arbitrary guesses.Instead, I want to watch out f

Stable, For Now...

Jun 03 2024 18 mins

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit newsletter.checkonchain.comBitcoin rarely goes to sleep like this, and low volatility is certainly not something the asset has a reputation for. Volatility is of course a dynamic beast, and it ebbs and flows throughout the cycle. However there is a simple principle that markets tend to adhere to over time, and Bitcoin is