The Dismal Science

Oct 31 2024 208 ep. 44 mins 102

The Dismal Science Podcast artwork

Join the AICD’s Chief Economist Mark Thirlwell GAICD for this weekly deep dive into the latest economic news from Australia and around the world. From interest rates to trade wars and everything in between, we have you covered.

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208 - Inflation Cools, But Services Stay Hot. Will Rate Cuts Come Sooner?

Oct 31 2024 14 mins

This week we look at the latest Australian inflation figures. The September quarter CPI figures came in slightly better than expected, with the headline numbers showing a decrease in inflation. This was largely driven by government rebates and falling fuel prices. However, services inflation remains stubbornly high. Additionally, some commentators are suggesting a December rate cut

207 - IMF says "Mission Accomplished"? Bumper jobs numbers, and revisiting Mark's prediction...

Oct 24 2024 26 mins

Today we have an in-depth look at the IMF's latest World Economic Outlook report, before returning home to dissect the bumper jobs numbers and latest consumer confidence numbers. In brief, it was an optimistic outlook from the IMF, begging the question, is central bank credibility back? With that said, champagne flutes should remain in the fridge, as there are still a litany of ris

206 - Oil price swings, China stimulus fallout, RBA minutes, and consumer confidence.

Oct 09 2024 18 mins

Another week, another economic roller coaster. Join Mark and Raph to discuss the recent volatility in oil prices, driven by factors including the Israel-Iran conflict and speculation about Chinese stimulus measures. We then unpack the latest RBA minutes, analysing the central bank's current thinking on interest rates and its assessment of the economic outlook. Have they made a d

205 - Housing is cooling, back to back surpluses, we're still unproductive, and the complexities of oil pricing.

Oct 03 2024 23 mins

Much to discuss on the agenda today. We unpack recent housing data, exploring the slowdown in price and rent growth alongside lagging approvals. Retail sales showed strength - but the RBA and other analysts disagree on why. Were they impacted by the weather, stage 3 tax cuts, or an early father's day? Mark will be the judge. Additionally, Australia has hit a fiscal milestone with

204 - Inflation trends maybe good? Interest rates stuck & China's sweeping monetary moves.

Sep 26 2024 25 mins

We begin with a look at recent inflation data. While headline inflation has decreased, Mark explore why the underlying numbers suggest continued vigilance is necessary. Our discussion then turns to the Reserve Bank of Australia's latest decision to maintain current interest rates. The focal point of our episode is China's economic situation. We address: The ongoing property sector

203 - Labour market news, a pacy 50 bps Fed rate cut, and how Middle East unrest affects us down here.

Sep 19 2024 17 mins

In this short but packed episode, we go through the complex economic landscape facing Australia and the world. We discuss the significance of the still tight Australian labour market and its implications for monetary policy, dissect why the US Federal Reserve decided on a rather large 50 basis point rate cut, and explore how Middle East tensions could spark global economic instabil

202 - Central bank independence in a changing world; from the RBA to the CBRT

Sep 12 2024 37 mins

Prompted by proposed changes to Australia's Reserve Bank, as well as increased criticism of central banks globally, today we discuss what central bank independence means, its historical development, and the evidence for its effectiveness. Mark analyses key moments in the formation of modern central bank theory including "The golden age of central banks " of the pre-2008 era , the i

201 - Mark’s Return: A brief global market meltdown, the RBA’s “don’t call it forward guidance” guidance, and our sluggish GDP numbers.

Sep 05 2024 25 mins

We welcome back AICD Chief Economist Mark Thirlwell, fresh from his holiday, as we dive into the market turbulence that peaked while Mark was celebrating his dad’s 80th birthday in Saltburn. We explore the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to hold steady on rates, as anticipated, and examine the global interest rate landscape, including hints of US rate cuts following the Fe

200 - A long goodbye

Jul 28 2024 72 mins

It's our 200th episode and Ivan's last ever :( Mark turns the tables on him and asks what's changed in economics since we started the podcast and what he's learned along the way. Plus, an experiment in UBI and what we can expect from Trumponomics and Kamalanomics. A big thank you to all of our listeners for getting us this far.

199 - A marriage of convenience

Jul 16 2024 32 mins

Mark Thirlwell is once again joined by Raphael Dixon to discuss the new consumer confidence survey, revealing falling confidence, as well as expectations of an interest rate rise jump. Topic two discusses the unlikely "marriage of convenience" between some renting millenials and some debt free baby boomers, both hoping for rate hikes. And finally, birth rates: how do governments u