The IRF Podcast

Nov 15 2024 93 ep. 26 mins 8
The IRF Podcast artwork

Insights from some of the world's top independent investment research providers spanning a range of countries, asset classes and themes.

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“Asset Allocation to Survive an Exciting 2025”, Callum Thomas, Topdown Charts

Nov 15 2024 23 mins  
In this podcast, Callum Thomas of Topdown Charts compares the current global interest rate cycle with the 3 previous ones. He points out what is different this time and what that might mean for the length and depth of this cycle. Callum then assesses the prospects for a reacceleration of economic growth and the associated risk of a resurgence in the rate of inflation. He discusses

"Global Economy and Capital Markets; the end of Business as Usual", Paul Hodges, New Normal Consulting

Nov 15 2024 49 mins  
Paul Hodges, Founder of New Normal Consulting draws on over 30 years of experience in the chemicals, energy and IT industries to outline the most likely scenarios in the wake of the recent US Presidential election, asking to what extent Donald Trump will be able to implement his stated agenda given the secular forces at work in the global economy. ----more---- Hodges sets the scene

China 2025: Stimulus Meets Debt-Deflation and Global Headwinds, Brian McCarthy, Macrolens

Nov 13 2024 61 mins  
Brian highlighted significant concerns about the Chinese economy, emphasising that its investment-led growth model is collapsing, with a real estate crisis leading to multi-trillion-dollar losses and debt deflation risks. He expressed scepticism about the effectiveness of anticipated stimulus measures, noting that while they may provide temporary support, they are unlikely to funda

The Budget - In Reeves we Trust? Helen Thomas, Blonde Money

Oct 29 2024 55 mins  
Helen Thomas of Blonde Money presents a three-part analysis of Rachel Reeves’ budget approach, focusing on her ideological foundations, probable budget content, and projected market impact. Thomas examines Reeves’ underlying ideology, shaped by a socialist perspective highlighted in her Mais lecture, where Reeves critiques modern capitalism's failure to enhance growth, democrat

Emerging Markets - The Myth that Failed? Manoj Pradhan - Talking Heads Macro; Jon Anderson - Emerging Advisors Group & JP Smith - IRF

Oct 24 2024 81 mins  
We hosted a group call on “Investing in Emerging Markets” with Manoj Pradhan, Talking Heads Macro and Jon Anderson, Emerging Advisors Group and JP Smith. JP kicked off the session by advocating for nuanced investment strategies and skilled active management rather than viewing EMs as a single asset class. Manoj argued that significant stress often drives reform, as seen in Indi

“Japan: A Safe Haven In A Troubled World?”, Tobias Harris, Japan Foresight

Oct 20 2024 18 mins  
In this podcast Tobias Harris of Japan Foresight discusses the political situation in Japan and the potential impact of the new Prime Minister, Shigeru Ishida. Tobias then considers the various geopolitical concerns that Japan faces in the Northeast Asian region and the wider world. In particular, he assesses the potential impact of sharply higher crude oil prices on the Japanese e

"Contrarian Alert: Why the Chinese Yuan Could Strengthen", Diana Choyleva, Enodo Economics

Sep 13 2024 31 mins  
In this podcast Diana Choyleva explains the reasons for her contrarian call on the near-term outlook for the Chinese currency. She discusses the deep-seated problems in the Chinese economy, particularly those in the property sector, and assesses the overall effectiveness of the government’s economic policies. In addition, Diana highlights the geopolitical factors that are now ham

“The Return of 1980s Currency Volatility”, Andrew Hunt, Andrew Hunt Economics

Sep 08 2024 18 mins  
In this podcast Andrew Hunt discusses in detail the key underlying monetary trends in the main Western economies and explains why he expects a new era of lower interest rates and greater currency volatility as the post-Plaza world crumbles. After an assessment of the outlook for the US economy and financial markets, Andrew considers the deep-seated problems in the Chinese economy a

"How Demographic Trends Will Impact Investment Performance", Shamil Ismail, Primaresearch

Sep 02 2024 19 mins  
In this podcast Shamil Ismail discusses how the rapidly evolving demographic trends will impact on global financial markets. He points out that the strong growth of the global population over the past century provided a firm underpin for market growth. Shamil explains how these demographic trends are changing as some countries’ populations are decreasing and there is a rising pro

“Global Financial Markets: Momentum, Risks and Outlook”, Ron William, RW Advisory

Jul 25 2024 27 mins  
David Osman of IRF is joined by Ron William, the Founder of RW Advisory. ----more---- Ron William is a market strategist with over 20 years of experience producing macro research and trading strategies for leading economic research and institutional firms. In this podcast Ron reviews the performance of the global financial markets in the first half of 2024 and discusses the outl