The Numbers

Apr 14 2025 64 ep. 49 mins 165
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Éric Grenier and Philippe J. Fournier provide their unique perspective and analysis on federal and provincial politics across Canada. Become a Patron for full access to exclusive content!
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Keep calm and trust the averages

Apr 14 2025 35 mins  
After a period of broad consensus, there’s been a few divergences in the polls. Are we seeing real movement between Mark Carney’s Liberals and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, or just some normal fluctuations between random surveys? We try to make sense of some of the numbers.Plus, we discuss our projections (is Saskatchewan really in play?) and chat about how Carney and Poi

Believe the polls

Apr 10 2025 29 mins  
At Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative rally in Brampton on Wednesday, some supporters wore sweaters and held banners asking a simple question: “do you believe the polls?”Yes. Yes, we do.On this episode of The Numbers, we break down what the polls are showing and explain why every indicator suggests not only that Mark Carney’s Liberals are leading, but that they are in a very g

Mind the polling gap

Apr 07 2025 33 mins  
Do we have a polling controversy on our hands? Maybe! Over the last few days, we’ve seen a few polls published that portray some starkly different public opinion environments. Are Mark Carney’s Liberals leading by double-digits, or are Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives keeping them to a close race? Or is it somewhere in between?On this episode of The Numbers, we try to make so

Do the polls make sense?

Apr 03 2025 35 mins  
While the consensus in the polls pretty clearly points to an advantage for Mark Carney’s Liberals over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, what should we make of those individual surveys that show the race to be far closer — perhaps even tied? And how should we interpret the polls that show the Liberals surging in regions they haven’t won in decades?In this episode of The Num

Liberals enter uncharted territory

Mar 31 2025 35 mins  
It’s clear enough that Mark Carney’s Liberals would be the favourites to win this election if it were held today. But as support for the party in parts of the country grows to levels not seen in decades, just where those Liberal seat gains will happen is tough to predict.On this episode of The Numbers, we discuss how the electoral map is shifting. We also chat about whether or

As NDP collapses, Carney hits new highs

Mar 27 2025 40 mins  
Early campaign polls show that the New Democrats under Jagmeet Singh are in freefall, propelling Mark Carney’s Liberals to new highs in support. Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives are holding steady, but that just means they are losing ground as the Liberals keep moving ahead.On this episode of The Numbers, Philippe J. Fournier and I discuss what the latest polling numbers say ab

The Liberal advantage is real

Mar 24 2025 36 mins  
The writ has dropped and the campaign buses are rolling. It also means the pollsters are polling — and, as hard as their numbers are to believe after what has been an extraordinary few months, you better believe them. The Liberal edge is real.But can it be sustained for the next five weeks? On this episode of The Numbers, we discuss whether or not Mark Carney’s Liberals have hi

The Liberals are...the favourites?

Mar 20 2025 39 mins  
A flurry of polls conducted just ahead of Sunday’s expected writ drop show the Liberals in the lead — and potentially in majority territory. Have the Liberals really gone from catastrophic to the favourites in a matter of weeks?On this episode of The Numbers, we break down the polls showing Mark Carney’s Liberals to be ahead of Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives and try to ma

Are you ready for an election?

Mar 13 2025 35 mins  
Mark Carney won the Liberal leadership race in emphatic fashion on Sunday and an election call seems only days away.This week on The Numbers, we dissect the results of the Liberal leadership contest and what the latest polls are saying about Carney’s chances against Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives. Plus, we take a look at some new provincial numbers out of Quebec and Briti

Has the Liberal surge peaked already?

Mar 06 2025 45 mins  
A series of polls published last week put the Liberals and Conservatives neck-and-neck. This week, the numbers are putting Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives back in front by a sizeable margin. Has the Liberal surge already ended?This week on The Numbers, we dissect the latest federal polling numbers. We also do a round of over/unders on Sunday’s Liberal leadership race where Mar