The Rate Guy

Mar 09 2025 100 ep. 24 mins 31
The Rate Guy Podcast artwork

The Rate Guy Podcast is hosted by JP Conklin of Pensford. It's an irreverent insight into interest rates and current markets and how they impact the Commercial Real Estate and Multifamily industries.

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Is the Labor Market the Frog in the Boiling Pot of Water?

Mar 09 2025 29 mins  
On this episode of The Rate Guy we talk tariffs, recession, GDP and of course Jobs, and why the number may be scarier that we think. Here is the SOS Recession Indicator that JP references as well as the sweet cardboard cut out of Saquon leaping backwards over J. Powell! Thanks Craig!

DOGE Impact on NFP and the UR

Mar 02 2025 24 mins  
What if the Fed's inflation target was a range of 2%-3% instead of a hard 2%? Would the market be as anxious? Core PCE is at 2.6%—inflation may not be fully defeated, but it’s contained enough for the Fed to shift focus. Meanwhile, money supply is rising, but without velocity, it’s just sitting on the sidelines. The real driver of inflation? Money changing hands—something w

59 Reasons the T10 Will Fall to 4%

Feb 23 2025 24 mins  
On this episode of The Rate Guy we lay out two lists. The first is our Top 10 favorite things from going to the Super Bowl. And then 59 reasons why the 10 Yr Treasury will fall to 4%. All of the reasons may or may not be directly related, but you can be the judge of that!

If Markets Played in The Superbowl

Feb 02 2025 24 mins  
On this episode of The Rate Guy, we discuss the Eagles vs. Chiefs showdown—and why it’s a brutal matchup for the Birds. But we also talk about the games market parallels! Mahomes = Inflation. Refs = Tariffs. Hurts = GDP. Jake Elliott = The 10-Year Treasury. What does it all mean for the game and the economy? Tune in for Super Bowl takes, market insights, and just the right amou

DJT, Jerry Jones, and The Real JP Walk Into a Bar...

Jan 26 2025 11 mins  
On this episode of The Rate Guy podcast we talk about 47's effect on rates, what to expect at this week's Fed meeting and of course a little bit of playoff football. This one's short and sweet because JP's is just too hype for the Eagles game. Go Birds!

No, the Fed is Not Hiking This Year

Jan 21 2025 15 mins  
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss inflation data and an interest rate outlook for 2025.

Rate Cuts Aren't Causing a Surge

Jan 13 2025 23 mins  
On this episode of The Rate Guy, we talk the latest jobs report, challenging the narrative that the economy is overheating. We also break down this week’s inflation data and what it could mean moving forward. We also explore a possible rebuilding strategy for LA. Southern California is like a second home to us, and we’re holding LA, its residents, our friends and customers clos

Lead Pipe Lock Guarantees for 2025

Dec 30 2024 34 mins  
On this episode of The Rate Guy, JP makes his lead pipe lock guarantees for 2025. We also take a look at his 2024 forecast and analyze what he got right and what was a big miss. Thanks for listening this year! We'll see you in 2025 as we kick off our 5th season. Happy New Year!

'Twas the Night Before FOMC

Dec 16 2024 9 mins  
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss what to expect at this week's FOMC meeting and recite JP's Interest Rate spin on 'Twas The Night Before Christmas. JP will send out a newsletter Wednesday with his analysis of the meeting. If you'd like to recieve that subscribe to the Pensford Newsletter here.

The Economy Lost 355k Jobs Last Month

Dec 08 2024 22 mins  
On this episode of The Rate Guys we discuss the Jobs Report and.how it will affect the Fed Meeting. Also, what data point can you not trust right now. And we of course had to touch on the heartbreak of the Penn State loss. So if you want to skip the football, fast forward to about the 3:45 mark. For those that want to check out the the CME Fed Match link that JP discussed. Here you