At Any Rate

Jan 31 2025 100 ep. 17 mins 246
At Any Rate Podcast artwork

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

  Business
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U.S. Rates - DeepFreeze

Jan 31 2025 10 mins  
Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss the latest developments in US rates markets. Speakers:Srini Ramaswamy, Global Head of Rates Derivatives StrategyIpek Ozil, Senior Derivative Strategist This podcast was recorded on 31 January 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/co

Global FX & Equities: Dollar/ equity linkages and the upcoming tariff announcement

Jan 31 2025 22 mins  
We discuss the outlook for US equity exceptionalism, it’s read-through for the dollar and the upcoming February 1st tariff announcements. SpeakersMeera Chandan, Global FX StrategyPrabhav Bhadani, Equity StrategyArindam Sandilya, Global FX StrategyPatrick Locke, Global FX Strategy This podcast was recorded on Jan 31, 2025. This communication is provided for information purpose

Global Commodities: $45 is the new $55

Jan 31 2025 14 mins  
President Trump wants lower energy prices and higher oil and gas production and exports—objectives that seem irreconcilable, given the relatively high cost of producing oil from US shale formations. We estimate that US energy companies need WTI crude prices of $55/bbl and natural gas at $3.50/MMBtu for drilling to be profitable, with $75 and $3.75 required to significantly increa

EM Fixed Income Focus: Tech ‘n’ Tariffs

Jan 31 2025 18 mins  
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class. This podcast was recorded on 31 January 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4898059-0 for more information; please visit www.jpm

US Rates -Trade policy, the Fed, and implications for rates markets

Jan 24 2025 15 mins  
Phoebe White, Head of US Inflation Strategy, and Michael Hanson, senior US economist, discuss their latest thoughts on US trade policy and Fed independence, following what has been a busy first week for the new administration, and what to expect from next week’s FOMC meeting. Yield curves are likely to flatten in the near term, supported by a narrowing in longer-run breakevens.

Global FX: Tariff purgatory and other things FX

Jan 24 2025 22 mins  
US trade/ tariffs will be a multi-quarter theme and support for USD. Our bias remains long USD given its growth and yield advantage, but the trading approach needs to be more tactical. A (short) window has opened up for carry/ high beta recovery. Carry still favours the dollar but several high beta have started to screen more attractive. Funders, particularly CHF, will be vulnerabl

Global Commodities: (Mis)Pricing of the risk

Jan 24 2025 11 mins  
Since the start of the year, Brent oil has been trading $4-7 above fair value, reflecting risks of reduced Russian and Iranian oil exports. Some risk premium is justified given the substantial figures involved: nearly 20% of the global Aframax fleet currently faces sanctions. Russia has previously defied expectations of supply disruptions, and it is reasonable to assume that its ex

Global Rates: What drives European cross currency basis?

Jan 24 2025 11 mins  
In this podcast Francis Diamond and Khagendra Gupta discuss the main drivers European cross currency basis and their latest thoughts on the cross currency basis market. This podcast was recorded on 24 January 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4889166-0 f

EM Fixed Income Focus: What we know (or don’t) after Week 1

Jan 23 2025 17 mins  
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class. Speakers:Jonny Goulden, Head of EM Fixed Income StrategySaad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategist This podcast was recorded on 23 January 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report

Global Commodities: A bitter cold US natural gas market ramps up LNG supply as Europe struggles to win cargoes

Jan 17 2025 15 mins  
The weather forecasts for early 2025 in both the US and Europe have turned colder, leading to increased natural gas demand and stress on projected end of season storage levels. While current conditions suggest a bullish outlook, we caution that there is still plenty of winter and time left in the year, creating significant uncertainty regarding price formation over the balance of 2