Macro Minutes

Apr 11 2025 74 ep. 22 mins 26
Macro Minutes Podcast artwork

Macro Minutes - RBC Capital Markets macro and market strategy series – explores the latest financial market and economic developments. Listen today to hear high conviction insights from RBC’s desk strategists and research analysts.

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Chaos Theory

Apr 11 2025 35 mins  
Today is 11-April-2025 and my name is Peter Schaffrik. We have labelled this edition ‘Chaos Theory’ and I trust most listeners do not need and explanation as to what inspired us. Market swings have been very large on the back of the back and forth in the tariffs culminating in a 90 day pause being announced this week. Helping us to bring some order into the chaos, I am joined b

Limited Series | Special Edition Episode: Can Europe’s Bank Equities and AT1s comeback be sustained?

Apr 03 2025 20 mins  
A twin resurgence is reshaping European financial markets. Bank equities and AT1 bonds are both surging—can the momentum last?Participants:Janet Wilkinson (Desk Strategy), Head of Global Markets Flow Sales, EMEAAnke Reingen (Desk Strategy), Global Co-Head of Financials ResearchMarc Sanchez Roger (Desk Strategy), Head of European Financials Credit Sector* Research Analys

Limited Series | Special Edition Episode: Trump’s Policies: Reshaping the Defense Landscape

Apr 01 2025 18 mins  
Explore how Trump's policies are reshaping global defense. Experts from RBC Capital Markets analyze the economic and strategic shifts in UK, European, and US defense spending.Participants:Janet Wilkinson (Desk Strategy), Head of Global Markets Flow Sales, EMEAPeter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Chief European Macro StrategistKen Herbert (Research), Senior Aerospace and Defense An

Butterfly Effect

Mar 26 2025 18 mins  
The butterfly effect is where a change in a complex system can have large effects elsewhere. Indeed, US trade policies are having significant intended and unintended consequences for various countries that is impacting fiscal policy and politics and potentially and monetary policy and the bond market.Participants:Jason Daw(Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates StrategyPeter S

Limited Series | Special Edition Episode: Softening Regulation Supports a Positive Dividend Outlook for U.K. Banks

Mar 06 2025 15 mins  
The signals are mixed, but the outlook for the U.K economy is uncertain at best, while geopolitical risks add further potential volatility. So why is the U.K. banking sector looking forward to another strong year?Participants:Janet Wilkinson Head of Global Markets Flow Sales EMEAKofi Oteng Head of Flow Rate Sales EMEA Benjamin Toms Director European Banks Equity Research* Rese

Return of the Living Spread

Feb 26 2025 24 mins  
The degree to which lingering tariff uncertainty impacts both market and general economic outcomes remains unclear. Economies are evolving regardless, with Europe and Canada seeing some improvement, while US exceptionalism is perhaps fading. Issuance and regulatory developments have brought swap spreads - the difference between swap rates and bond yields of the same term - back int

The Aftermath

Feb 04 2025 20 mins  
This weekend and the start of the trading week were heavily impacted by President Trump announcing tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China. They were ultimately postponed for Mexico and Canada, but he has the EU in his sights as well This edition we discuss central banks in the context of tariffs, but also what the non-tariff fundamentals are suggesting for policy going forward. The Fe

The Art of the Deal

Jan 28 2025 21 mins  
The biggest known unknown for economies and financial markets is what will happen with tariffs – are they just being threatened as a bargaining chip for transactional purposes, if they come to fruition what will their breadth, size, and duration be, and will trading partners retaliate. Unfortunately for investors, the matrix of possibilities is endless, and each has a low probabi

Bark or Bite?

Jan 14 2025 31 mins  
Will Trump’s bite match his bark on tariffs? If it does, the economic damage could be severe but central bank responses are not clear cut in the short term. While Trump policy is the primary risk factor, there are many other question marks – Is the Fed finished the easing cycle? What happens with Canada politics? Will the ongoing rout in global bond markets continue? Is the USD

Let It Slow! Let It Slow! Let It Slow!

Dec 17 2024 23 mins  
The BoC ended the year with another large rate cut but they are expected to SLOW the pace in 2025, while the Fed has already SLOWed down after an outsized move in September and seems locked in to deliver a regular size move tomorrow. The ECB should take it SLOW and the market is increasingly pricing a SLOW pace for the BoE. Central banks should proceed at a variable and uneven pace