Macro Minutes

Jan 28 2025 67 ep. 22 mins 21

Macro Minutes Podcast artwork

Macro Minutes - RBC Capital Markets macro and market strategy series – explores the latest financial market and economic developments. Listen today to hear high conviction insights from RBC’s desk strategists and research analysts.

Copy RSS

Subscribe on Podcast Addict

The Art of the Deal

Jan 28 2025 21 mins

The biggest known unknown for economies and financial markets is what will happen with tariffs – are they just being threatened as a bargaining chip for transactional purposes, if they come to fruition what will their breadth, size, and duration be, and will trading partners retaliate. Unfortunately for investors, the matrix of possibilities is endless, and each has a low probabi

Bark or Bite?

Jan 14 2025 31 mins

Will Trump’s bite match his bark on tariffs? If it does, the economic damage could be severe but central bank responses are not clear cut in the short term. While Trump policy is the primary risk factor, there are many other question marks – Is the Fed finished the easing cycle? What happens with Canada politics? Will the ongoing rout in global bond markets continue? Is the USD

Let It Slow! Let It Slow! Let It Slow!

Dec 17 2024 23 mins

The BoC ended the year with another large rate cut but they are expected to SLOW the pace in 2025, while the Fed has already SLOWed down after an outsized move in September and seems locked in to deliver a regular size move tomorrow. The ECB should take it SLOW and the market is increasingly pricing a SLOW pace for the BoE. Central banks should proceed at a variable and uneven pace

Different Trajectories

Dec 03 2024 27 mins

We are approaching final central bank decisions of 2024 with uncertainty about ultimate outcomes, but clear differences across jurisdictions on where economies are headed. In Canada, soft growth data has solidified our expectation for a second consecutive 50bp cut despite firmer inflation data last month, while US economic exceptionalism has markets pricing a material possibility o

2025 Outlook: Macro, Monetary Policy & Rates

Nov 15 2024 35 mins

For macro and bond investors, 2024 has been challenging. Despite central banks cutting rates, bond yields have remained high, and country-specific macroeconomic factors have heavily influenced allocation strategies. Looking ahead to 2025, returns in global fixed income will largely depend on the trajectory of the U.S. economy and the extent of the Federal Reserve's easing measures.

Stimulus (Almost) Everywhere

Oct 17 2024 24 mins

The ECB delivered another cut today and there is more to come, the BoC is primed to start cutting in 50bp increments and do a lot over the cycle, the Fed should cut further but only a little bit, and China has recently delivered a lot of stimulus. The RBNZ has recently cut 50bp and could follow up with materially more. But the outlier is the RBA who is sitting patiently and doesn�

Super-Sized

Sep 24 2024 20 mins

The Fed delivered a super-sized rate cut to the start of the cycle last week. More likely they go back to smaller 25bp moves if labour data remains resilient. But another large move is not out of the realm of possibility. We think the BoC is on course for 5 straight 25’s but they could front-load with a 50bp move in October or December if growth data shows a large undershoot vs p

Back in Sync

Sep 10 2024 23 mins

With the Fed and ECB set to follow the BoC’s lead with 25bp cuts of their own, a number of the major central banks are now back in sync. So far, these central banks look to be proceeding gradually along their respective cutting paths, but the possibility of larger cuts still loom should economic conditions start to deteriorate. Meanwhile, others are proving even more cautious, wi

Is This Time Different?

Aug 28 2024 23 mins

There are nuances in every economic cycle but this one continues to feel different. Central banks are firmly in easing mode - the Fed will join the rate-cutting party in September. The timing and magnitude of rate cuts is the main topic for financial markets and is highly dependent on the assessment of the economic cycle. Listen to our macro and rates experts discuss the US, Canada

Volatility Galore!

Aug 07 2024 27 mins

We have seen very large market moves triggered by the US labour market report over the last few days that have also led to quite a few market participants changing their view on Fed rate cuts. We take a deeper dive into the data, highlight important questions that need answering and reiterate our rates call for the Fed and all other major central banks. We do not feel the need to m