The Macro Compass

Jan 18 2025 121 ep. 8 mins 193
The Macro Compass Podcast artwork

The 10.000 foot view of Global Macro and Financial Markets, such that you don't miss the forest for the trees.

themacrocompass.substack.com

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How To Prepare For Tariff Day

Jan 18 2025 7 mins  
Next week will be crucial for markets as Trump is set to announce (or disappointingly not announce) tariffs.In this piece I will highlight the rationale behind my base case scenario and its impact on markets.Before we do that, I want to share something with you.I am offering a FREE trial to my institutional macro research service!The service includes:* Multiple macro research piece

What To Buy For A Macro Portfolio In 2025

Jan 05 2025 8 mins  
Good morning, this is Alf - welcome back to The Macro Compass!I wish you a fantastic year ahead: follow your passions, keep learning, and don’t drink cappuccino after 11am.In this macro piece, we will cover the biggest market mover for H1 2025: tariffs.We will also investigate what’s the most attractive asset class today.But before we start, here is a present for you to kicksta

A Fresh Look At Bond Markets

Dec 09 2024 6 mins  
Looking back at the 2015-2021 period when I traded bond markets at a large bank, it was quite boring.Rates were mostly stuck around 0% at the front-end, and to make money you had to find small dislocations and monetize them with leverage hoping volatility would remain low forever.Today, the story is different: bond markets are truly exciting.So let’s have a fresh look at them.Bef

Macro Clouds On The Horizon

Oct 20 2024 7 mins  
The key macro event of 2024 is approaching: US elections are around the corner.Next week I will release a deep research piece on US elections, which will be centered around the key questions looming large.How to trade different scenarios?What happens to markets if Trump secures a Red Sweep? And what asset classes to prefer if instead Kamala wins?This special election piece will be

The Big Chinese Bazooka

Sep 28 2024 5 mins  
The Chinese real estate market is de-leveraging very hard. Economists estimate Chinese households have suffered $10+ trillion of wealth losses as a result. There is now a strong urge to stop the bleeding amongst Chinese policymakers.Last week, China unleashed a ‘‘stimulus bazooka’’.But what were the measures all about?And will they be effective to fix the Chinese economy?Ch

China Is Imploding

Sep 20 2024 5 mins  
The news of the week is NOT the Fed cutting 50 bps - yes sure, that’s important but there is something much more relevant going on.The Chinese economy keeps imploding from within.And we should pay attention.The Property Price Index for Chinese tier-1 cities keeps making new lows, and it’s now approaching levels last seen 8 years ago!At this point you might ask yourself: well, i

This is a True Regime Change

Sep 10 2024 7 mins  
We are observing a true regime change in markets.And for macro investors, it’s incredibly important to stay vigilant and on top of our game at this stage.It all starts with this: the Fed is behind the curve, and it is playing with fire.Consider this.The recently released US job report showed the US private sector is only adding an average of 96,000 jobs per month over the last 3

Panic Monday! (What Now?)

Aug 05 2024 5 mins  
We just witnessed one of the biggest market panic events ever seen in the last 4 decades.At some point, Asian markets were down 10%+ in a single session and the Japanese bank index saw the largest daily loss since Black Monday in 1987.During such panic events, it’s important to remember three crucial rules:* Markets can remain irrational longer than we can stay solvent;* Opportun

Macro Volatility Is Coming

Jul 15 2024 8 mins  
The S&P500 realized volatility is below 10%.Credit spreads are super tight, and aside from some short-lived European political drama markets keep marching higher.Yet, I think macro volatility is coming back.First of all: we are suppressing economic cycles, injecting an artificial equilibrium which will only make the system more fragile in the long run.We are not allowed to have a r

Why Doesn't The Economy Break?!

May 16 2024 6 mins  
The Fed hiked rates above 5%, and yet the US economy doesn't break.Back in 2022 already, the yield curve inverted and it has stayed inverted ever since.The lags looked relatively short, and the US economy was going through a soft patch in 2023 when it became consensus that a recession was gonna happen.Something even broke in markets (regional banks), and yet nothing really happened