Curve Your Enthusiasm

Feb 07 2025 71 ep. 25 mins 10

Curve Your Enthusiasm Podcast artwork

Welcome to Curve Your Enthusiasm by CIBC Capital Markets, the only podcast in the world focusing on the Canadian economy and fixed income market.

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Excess hot potatoes

Feb 07 2025 34 mins

In the first episode of 2025, Ian is joined by Aaron Carter from the financing desk to discuss recent adjustments in the short-end. The show begins with the duo discussing the importance of the Bank of Canada’s move to change the way monetary policy is implemented, namely moving back into a corridor system. Aaron gives his ‘big picture’ view on why this is a real game-changer

A conversation with Stephen Poloz

Nov 19 2024 41 mins

In a very special edition of Curve Your Enthusiasm, Stephen Poloz joins Ian as co-host for this week’s episode. The show begins by talking about the outcome of the U.S. presidential election, and what potential trade uncertainty means for the Canadian economy and monetary policy. Stephen spends time talking about the structural underperformance of the Canadian economy relative to

The reflexivity doom loop

Nov 04 2024 27 mins

Ian is joined by Jeremy Saunders this week, and the duo begin the show discussing the spate of U.S. jobs data last week. Ian discusses the internals of the JOLTS and NFP reports, noting the trend for U.S. labour demand is a negative one. Jeremy opines on his view on the election, and how the best opportunities are to fade recent flattening in the U.S. curve. They take some time to

This is a really good episode

Oct 07 2024 32 mins

Ian is joined by two guests this week, Paul Beaudry (Professor of Economics at UBC and Former Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada) and Ali Jaffery from CIBC Economics. The episode begins with Paul giving his view on the 50.0bps cut from FOMC, and what the most recent strong NFP means for the November meeting (hint: 25.0bps not 50.0bps). In contrast, when thinking about the Bank o

When the circus comes to town

Aug 13 2024 27 mins

Ian is joined this week by Ali Jaffery in CIBC Economics. The duo begin the episode by taking stock of the intense market volatility seen over the past week, and whether what triggered the moved has a real fundamental basis. Ali discusses the other pockets of strength in the U.S. economy, concluding that the U.S is slowing but not enough to warrant non-standard sized cuts, like 50.

Trading the Macro using the Micro

Jul 30 2024 28 mins

Ian is joined this week by CIBC Capital Markets’ Brenden Donaher, Executive Director from the Short Term Interest Rate Trading (STIRT) desk. The show begins with Ian highlighting the three key takeaways from the Bank of Canada rate decision last week. The Bank sounds more dovish and that raises the risk of an easing cycle which takes policy rates below neutral. Brenden provides h

What to expect, when you’re expecting a cut

Jul 19 2024 29 mins

Ian is joined this week by CIBC’s Senior Economist, Ali Jaffery, and the focal point of the episode is to preview the upcoming Bank of Canada interest rate decision. Ali begins the episode outlining his view on forecast changes, and the likelihood that the Bank shifts from outcome-based guidance to forward-guidance. Ian talks about current market pricing for the BoC relative to t

Enjoying the moment

Jun 10 2024 24 mins

Ian Pollick is joined by Nicholas Neary this week, Managing Director at DV Trading Group. The duo begin the episode by discussing the Bank of Canada interest rate cut, and what the near-term market implications are. Nicholas highlights his view on the threshold for policy divergence, which is considerably larger than most analyst estimates. The pair go on to discuss whether duratio

Live free or diverge

May 13 2024 27 mins

Divergence is the most oct-cited narrative when it comes to Canadian macro right now and, for good reason. In this episode, Ian is joined by Andrew Grantham, and the duo begin the episode by dissecting the latest Canadian jobs report. Despite the eye-popping headline number, the reality is that ‘under the hood’ there is ample evidence of a labour market that is slowing. Andrew

Shakedown street

Mar 22 2024 29 mins

This past week demonstrated the largest amount of macro divergence over the past several years, with one major central bank hiking rates while another cut, at the same time the Fed straddles a dovish and hawkish message. This week, Ian is joined by Ali Jaffery in CIBC Economics, and the duo begin the episode by discussing these events. Ali makes the case that the macro story across